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Euro May Rise on CPI Pickup, Dollar Looks to Data for QE Cues

Euro May Rise on CPI Pickup, Dollar Looks to Data for QE Cues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The Euro may extend gains as a pickup in inflation weighs against ECB stimulus bets. The Dollar continues to interpret US news-flow in terms of QE cutback expectations.

Talking Points

  • Euro May Rise if CPI Acceleration Weighs Against ECB Stimulus Expectations
  • US Dollar Continues to View News-flow Through the Prism of Fed QE Outlook
  • NZ Dollar Outperforms in Asia Amid Signs of Resilience to Strong Currency

The preliminary set of May’s Eurozone CPI figures headlines the calendar in European hours. Expectations call for the year-on-year inflation rate to rise to 1.4 percent, marking the first increase in eight months. An upside surprise that echoes analogous German data released earlier in the week may weigh against expectations for a near-term expansion of ECB stimulus efforts and boost the Euro.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to US Personal Income and Spending numbers as well as the Chicago PMI survey and the final revision of May’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge. Traders will continue to view US economic news-flow through the prism of Fed policy expectations, with stronger results likely to boost bets on a tapering of monthly QE purchases in the relatively near term. Such an outcome is likely to boost the US Dollar, while soft figures stand to produce the opposite effect.

Currency markets were in consolidation mode overnight, with the majors little changed as traders digested the swell in volatility over the past week. The New Zealand Dollar proved best-supported on the session, adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its top counterparts, on the back of encouraging economic data.

The Terms of Trade Index unexpectedly jumped 4.1 percent in the first quarter, marking the largest increase in three years, while the ANZ gauge of Business Confidence advanced to the highest level since July 2011. Taken together, the results pointed to resilience in the face of a strong exchange rate that has threatened to undermine growth in an economy where exports account for close to 30 percent of GDP.

Capitalize on Shifts in Market Mood with the DailyFX Speculative Sentiment Index

Asia Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (1Q)

4.1%

1.5%

-1.2%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)

-22

-26

-27

23:15

JPY

Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

51.5

-

51.1

23:30

JPY

Household Spending (YoY) (APR)

1.5%

3.0%

5.2%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (APR)

0.89

0.87

0.86

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (APR)

4.1%

4.1%

4.1%

23:30

JPY

National CPI (YoY) (APR)

-0.7%

-0.7%

-0.9%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)

-0.4%

-0.4%

-0.5%

23:30

JPY

National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)

-0.6%

-0.7%

-0.8%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (MAY)

-0.2%

-0.4%

-0.7%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)

0.1%

-0.2%

-0.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

-0.3%

-0.7%

-0.7%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR P)

1.7%

0.6%

0.9%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR P)

-2.3%

-3.4%

-6.7%

1:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (MAY)

41.8

-

32.3

1:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (MAY)

34.3

-

30.3

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (APR)

0.3%

0.3%

0.2%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (APR)

3.1%

3.0%

3.2%

1:35

CNY

MNI Business Sentiment Indicator (MAY)

56.7

57.1

58.5

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

6.5%

-

7.0%

4:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (APR)

-6.5%

-

-16.4%

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (APR)

5.8%

4.1%

7.3%

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (APR)

2.0%

-

-3.4%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (APR)

0.939M

0.923M

0.904M

Euro Session:

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

-0.4% (A)

-0.1%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

1.8% (A)

-2.5%

Medium

7:00

CHF

KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (APR)

1.07

1.02

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR P)

11.6%

11.5%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (1Q)

11.6%

11.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (APR)

0.4B

0.5B

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellin (APR)

0.5B

0.4B

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (APR)

54.6K

53.5K

Medium

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (APR)

-

-0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (APR)

-

0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (APR)

3.3%

4.6%

Low

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAY)

1.4%

1.2%

High

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone CPI - Core (YoY) (MAY A)

1.1%

1.0%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (APR)

12.2%

12.1%

Medium

Critical Levels:

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.2969

1.3096

GBPUSD

1.5149

1.5275

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, please CLICK HERE

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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