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Forex Analysis: Dollar May Rise as Fiscal Cliff Fears Sink Confidence

Forex Analysis: Dollar May Rise as Fiscal Cliff Fears Sink Confidence

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

The US Dollar looks set to rise as lingering deadlock in US “fiscal cliff” negotiations weighs on risk appetite and boosts demand for the go-to haven currency.

Talking Points

  • US Dollar May Rise as “Fiscal Cliff” Impasse Dents Risk Appetite
  • British Pound Unlikely to Find Lasting Fuel in Retail Sales Report
  • Japanese Yen Soars as BOJ Opts for Modest Stimulus Expansion

US fiscal cliff negotiations continue to dominate attention across financial markets. Divergent headlines have seen markets seesawing throughout the week but the fast-approaching Christmas holiday – the would-be deadline for a deal to emerge – seems likely to create a sense of urgency absent signs of a breakthrough. Indeed, S&P 500 index futures are pointing lower in late Asian trade, hinting a risk-averse mood is beginning to take hold and may begin to drive the safe-haven US Dollar higher.

November’s UK Retail Sales report headlines the calendar in European hours. Expectations point to a 0.4 percent increase compared with a -0.7 percent drop in the prior month. The outcome seems unlikely to yield a significant boost for the British Pound however considering the recovery has been well-telegraphed in an analogous report from the BRC released two week ago.

The Japanese Yen soared in overnight trade, adding 0.7 percent on average against its top counterparts, after the Bank of Japan delivered a stimulus expansion in line with market expectations. Maasaki Shirakawa and company added ¥10 trillion to their asset-purchase program, bringing the total size of the bank’s non-standard easing effort to ¥101 trillion.

The result disappointed hopes for a more aggressive push to the dovish side of the spectrum reflecting the election of Shinzo Abe as Prime Minister over the weekend. Abe campaigned on ending deflation by pushing the BOJ into committing to open-ended stimulus with a goal of hitting a price-growth target of 2 percent.

Asia Session: What Happened

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (3Q)

0.2%

0.4%

0.3% (R-)

21:45

NZD

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (3Q)

2.0%

2.5%

2.5% (R-)

0:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (DEC)

22.7

-

26.4

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (DEC)

31.4

-

31.6

0:30

AUD

RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (A$) (NOV)

414M

-

275M

0:30

AUD

RBA Quarterly Bulletin

-

-

-

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (NOV)

248.5

-

245.8

4:03

JPY

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

0.10%

4:03

JPY

BOJ Asset Purchase and Lending Facility Total (¥)

101T

-

91T

Euro Session: What to Expect

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (NOV)

2.95B (A)

2.73B

Medium

7:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (NOV)

6.0% (A)

-7.3%

Low

7:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (NOV)

0.2% (A)

-6.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1% (A)

0.0%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (YoY) (NOV)

1.4% (A)

1.5%

Medium

7:00

EUR

Import Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

0.0% (A)

-0.6%

Low

7:00

EUR

Import Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

1.1% (A)

1.5%

Low

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (NOV)

-2.5% (A)

-2.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales (MoM) (OCT)

0.0%

0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian Retail Sales (YoY) (OCT)

-

-1.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (NOV)

0.4%

-0.7%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (YoY) (NOV)

2.2%

1.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (MoM) (NOV)

0.4%

-0.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel (YoY) (NOV)

1.5%

0.6%

Low

11:15

EUR

EU’s Almunia Press Conf on Spanish Bank Aid

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

SUPPORT

RESISTANCE

EURUSD

1.3168

1.3282

GBPUSD

1.6224

1.6330

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com

To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak

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