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Oil Price Outlook: Crude Slips into Support– WTI Trade Levels

Oil Price Outlook: Crude Slips into Support– WTI Trade Levels

2020-02-18 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Crude Oil Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

Oil prices plummeted more than 2.7% into the start of the week with price rebounding off near-term uptrend support today- is relief in sight? These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the crude oil technical charts. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this WTI trade setup and more.

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Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI Daily - CL Price Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Oil Price Outlook we noted that crude, “sell-off is taking crude towards initial near-term support targets – look for a reaction on a test of the lower parallel / 54.” WTI broke the below the figure and tested it as resistance the following week before resuming lower with the decline rebounding off the 100% extension of the decline off the 2019 highs at 49.63. The focus now falls on a break of the February opening-range for guidance with the broader short-bias at risk within this zone.

Crude Oil Price Chart – WTI 120min

Crude Oil Price Chart - WTI 120min - CL Price Outlook - Techncial Forecast

Notes: A closer look at crude oil price action shows WTI trading within the confines of a near-term ascending pitchfork formation extending off the monthly lows. An early-week pullback is defending the lower parallel today with price currently trading into the monthly open at 51.56.

Initial resistance stands at 51.67 with a breach above the August low-day close at 52.29 needed to fuel a larger breakout towards 53.16- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. A break below today’s lows would invalidate this near-term uptrend with such a scenario targeting the 61.8% retracement at 50.52 and 49.63/73.

Oil Forecast
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Bottom line: The oil price sell-off is testing near-term uptrend support today and the immediate focus is on a break of the weekly opening-range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, the setup remains constructive while within this formation with a breach above 52.29 needed to mark resumption. Ultimately, a larger recovery may offer more favorable short-entries closer to broader downtrend resistance. Review my latest Crude Oil Weekly Price Outlook for a longer-term look at the WTI technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Trader Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - CL Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long crude oil - the ratio stands at +4.29 (81.10% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 4.34% lower than yesterday and 15.54% lower from last week
  • Short positions are5.36% higher than yesterday and 43.49% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil - US Crude prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Crude Oil price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Oil - US Crude MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% -5% -4%
Weekly -16% 69% -4%
Learn how shifts in Oil retail positioning impact trend
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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