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Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Spirals into Support– Trade Levels

Euro Price Outlook: EUR/USD Spirals into Support– Trade Levels

2020-02-12 15:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Euro Technical Price Outlook: EUR/USD Near-term Trade Levels

  • Euro updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
  • EUR/USD plummets into technical support just above 2019 lows
  • Immediate focus is on a break of the 1.0879-1.0942 price range

Euro has been in free-fall against the US Dollar since the start of the month with EUR/USD down more than 1.8%. The collapse takes price towards support just above the 2019 lows and while the broader risk remains lower, the bears may be vulnerable here near-term. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD price charts heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro trade setup and more.

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Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD Daily - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook:Euro has been trading within the confines of a descending pitchfork formation extending off the October / December highs with price rebounding off confluence support yesterday at the lower parallel / 2019 close low at 1.0897. The immediate short-bias may be vulnerable while above this threshold –a break / close below would be needed to mark resumption. Interim resistance now back at the low-day close at 1.0932 with broader bearish invalidation now lowered to 1.1016/24.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 240min - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action sees EUR/USD trading within a near-term descending slope series extending off the yearly highs. The immediate focus is on key support at the 2019 low / close low at 1.0879/97- look for a reaction off this threshold. A break lower exposes subsequent support objectives at 1.0854 and 1.0814/22. A breach above the median-line / weekly open at 1.0932/42 would be needed to shift the near-term focus higher towards the 2019 low-week close / November low at 1.09736/81- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

{{GUIDE|EUR |Download Our Latest Quarterly Euro Price Forecasts!}}

Bottom line: Euro is carving out the weekly opening-range just above near-term support at 1.0879/97 and we’re looking for the break for guidance. From at trading standpoint, an area of interest to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops. Be on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above 1.0880 with a breach above 1.1024 needed to suggest a more significant low is in place. Stay nimble here- a break below this this support zone would likely fuel accelerated losses and could wash-out rather quickly. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for an in-depth look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Euro Trader Sentiment – EUR/USD Price Chart

Euro Trader Sentiment - EUR/USD Price Chart - Euro vs US Dollar Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD - the ratio stands at +3.34 (76.97% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Long positions are 13.18% higher than yesterday and 67.10% higher from last week
  • Short positions are8.87% lower than yesterday and 31.00% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
EUR/USD BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -5% -8% -7%
Weekly 17% -4% 4%
Learn how shifts in Euro retail positioning impact trend
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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