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Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC/USD Rally Falters- Crypto Trade Levels

Bitcoin Price Outlook: BTC/USD Rally Falters- Crypto Trade Levels

2020-02-04 19:15:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist

Bitcoin Technical Price Outlook: BTC/USD Trade Levels

Bitcoin prices have rallied more than 40% off the yearly lows with the cryptocurrency at risk for near-term exhaustion just below the October highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the BTC/USD price charts heading into the monthly open. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of the setups we’re tracking this week.

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Bitcoin Price Chart – BTC/USD Daily

Bitcoin Price Chart - BTC/USD Daily - Cryptocurrency Trade Outlook - BTC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros (log scale), Technical Strategist; Bitcoin on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: Bitcoin broke out of a multi-month downtrend formation in January with price rallying more than 34% from the yearly open before faltering at the October close high at 9557. BTC/USD continues to trade within the confines of an ascending pitchfork formation extending off the November / December lows - while the broader outlook remains constructive, the immediate advance may be vulnerable near-term while below this threshold as daily RSI marks ongoing momentum divergence into these highs.

Interim support rests at the May high pivot at 9096 backed by the highlighted confluence zone the 200-day moving average / 25% parallel around ~8870s. Key support / broader bullish invalidation rests with the lower parallel which converges on the January opening-range high and the 38.2% retracement at 8396-8464. A topside breach from here exposes subsequent resistance objectives at 10,152 and the 61.8% retracement at 11,032.

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Bottom line: The immediate focus is on a break of the 9096-9557 range for guidance with the broader long-bias at risk while below this week’s high. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. A break lower would suggest a larger correction is under way – be on the lookout for downside exhaustion for into the lower parallels for possible entries IF reached. I’ll publish and updated Bitcoin Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term BTC/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bitcoin Trader Sentiment – BTC/USD Price Chart

Bitcoin Trader Sentiment - BTC/USD Price Chart - Crypto Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Bitcoin - the ratio stands at +4.42 (81.55% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are8.09% lower than yesterday and 9.50% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 4.27% higher than yesterday and 2.09% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday & compared with last week and the recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Bitcoin price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.
Bitcoin MIXED
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Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 2% 10% 3%
Weekly 2% -16% -1%
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


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