Near-term Technical Outlook: EUR/USD, AUD/USD & USD/CAD
- Technical charts on trade setup we’ve been tracking in EUR/USD, GBP/USD &USD/CAD
- Euro approaching weekly range highs, breakout risk
- Sterling reversal eyes initial resistance
- USD/CAD breakout stalling just above resistance
An update on trade setups we've been tracking inEuro, Sterling & Loonie. These are the targets and invalidation levels that matter next week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of thesetrade setups and more.
Euro Price Chart - EUR/USD 120min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on Tradingview
In my most recent EUR/USD Technical Price Outlook we noted that the, “Euro is trading just above technical support confluence heading into today’s FOMC interest rate decision and the immediate short-bias may be vulnerable while above 1.0976.” EUR/USD registered a low at 1.0992 before reversing post-Fed with price rallying more than 0.4% towards the weekly opening-range high at 1.1037- look for a breach / close there to suggest a larger reversal is underway with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at the median-line / 61.8% retracement at 1.1070/80. Constructive near-term while above 1.1016 with critical support steady at 1.0976/81. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.
Sterling Price Chart – GBP/USD 120min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview
In last week’s Sterling Price Outlook we noted that, “The Sterling breakout is testing the first major resistance zone into 1.3157 and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable while below this threshold.” The Cable rally failed mount this region on Friday (briefly registering a spike high at 1.3175) before plummeting more than 1.5% to a low of 1.2973. GBP/USD is poised to mark an outside-day reversal today with a few hours left in New York trade.
A new slope we’ve been tracking keeps the focus higher while above 1.3030 with near-term resistance objectives steady at 1.3118 and back at 1.3157- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend with such a scenario exposing 1.3196-1.3213. As noted earlier this week, a close below 1.2990 would risk a test of critical support / bullish invalidation at 1.2907/20. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 120min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview
In my latest Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD was testing, “confluence resistance here and the immediate focus is on a the daily close with respect to 1.3182/84.” Price has been straddling this threshold all week long, marking a daily close above, below and back above again. The move leaves outlook weighted to the topside, but the advance has continued to stall just above near-term channel resistance here with momentum looking a bit tired. False break scenario?
It’s too early to tell but for now, note initial support at the weekly opening-range highs at 1.3205 backed by 1.3182/84. Ultimately a break below the weekly open at 1.3153 would be needed to suggest a more significant near-term exhaustion high is in place. A march higher from here keeps the focus on 1.3247 and the December open at 1.3270.Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.
Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD - the ratio stands at 1.75 (36.32% of traders are long) –bullish reading
- Long positions are 6.11% lower than yesterday and 9.32% lower from last week
- Short positions are 9.17% higher than yesterday and 22.78% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USD/CAD-bullish contrarian trading bias
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 13% | -2% | 1% |
| Weekly | 4% | 8% | 7% |
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex
