- Euro weekly technical update - risk remains for a larger recovery while above 1.16
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In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the Euro weekly chart (EUR/USD). Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.
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EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart
Notes: In last month’s Weekly Technical Perspective on the Euro, we highlighted a critical support zone in EUR/USD at 1.1606, “where the October low-close converges on the median-line of the broader ascending pitchfork formation and basic trendline support extending off the 2016 low. We’ve been tracking this support region in EUR/USD for over a month now and last weeks’ reversal candle on building RSI divergence suggests the near-term risk remains weighted to the topside against this threshold.”
Steady as she goes . . . the outlook remains unchanged with weekly resistance seen at, “1.1910/30 backed closely by the yearly open at 1.2005- a breach / close above is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place (note the pending resistance trigger in RSI). A downside break from here targets the 50% Fibonacci retracement which converges on parallel support, at 1.1448.”
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Bottom line: We’re looking to validate a larger reversal in price with the risk still weighted to the topside while above 1.1605(yearly low-day close at 1.1606). Note that a pending RSI resistance trigger remains play with a weekly close above to offer further conviction on long-exposure. The intraday trade levels remain unchanged from last month’s EUR/USD Scalp Report and we’re looking for support ahead of monthly open support at 1.1675 if this immediate advance has legs.
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EUR/USD Trader Positioning
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short EUR/USD- the ratio stands at -1.02 (49.6% of traders are long) – neutral reading
- Long positions are 4.5% higher than yesterday and 4.2% lower from last week
- Short positions are4.0% higher than yesterday and 16.4% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases
Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk
Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the British Pound (GBP/USD)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the US Dollar (DXY)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at email@example.com