In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Euro responded to confluence support last week and the focus is on validating a larger reversal in price. Here are the key levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.

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EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

EUR/USD Weekly Price Chart

Notes: Euro rebounded off confluence support last week around 1.1606 - where the October low-close converges on the median-line of the broader ascending pitchfork formation and basic trendline support extending off the 2016 low. We’ve been tracking this support region in EUR/USD for over a month now and last weeks’ reversal candle on building RSI divergence suggests the near-term risk remains weighted to the topside against this threshold.

Weekly resistance stands at 1.1910/30 backed closely by the yearly open at 1.2005- a breach / close above is needed to suggest a more significant low is in place (note the pending resistance trigger in RSI). A downside break from here targets the 50% Fibonacci retracement which converges on parallel support, at 1.1448.

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Bottom line: Euro is threatening a larger recovery here with our focus higher for now while above the 1.16-handle. Note that a break of the yearly opening range did shift the broader focus lower and price would need to surpass yearly open resistance to refute this signal. A break lower from here risks a drop towards more significant support at 1.1448- look for a more prominent reaction there IF reached. Stay nimble here until we get more evidence to support a reversal play- review basic principles on how we approach trading the turn.

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EUR/USD IG Client Positioning

EUR/USD Trader Positioning
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long EUR/USD- the ratio stands at +1.26 (55.7% of traders are long) –weak bearishreading
  • Traders have remained net-long since June 14th; price has moved 1.0% lower since then
  • Long positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 10.4% lower from last week
  • Short positions are6.4% higher than yesterday and 0.5% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EURUSD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in EUR/USD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

Relevant EUR/USD Data Releases

EUR/USD Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar– for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com