- USD/CAD posts outside-daily reversal off Fibonacci resistance- risk is lower sub 1.3288
- Check out our 2018 USD projections in our Free DailyFX Trading Forecasts
- Join Michael for Live Weekly Strategy Webinars on Mondays at 12:30GMT
In this series we scale-back and take a look at the broader technical picture to gain a bit more perspective on where we are in trend. Here are the key targets & invalidation levels that matter on the weekly chart for the US Dollar vs the Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD). Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more.
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USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart
Notes: In last month’s Weekly Technical Perspective on the Canadian Dollar, we highlighted a breach above confluence resistance in USD/CAD at 1.3103/32 where the 100% extension of the advance converges on the 61.8% retracement of the 2017 range. Price rallied into the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2016 decline at 1.3376 with the Loonie posting an outside-day reversal of this threshold yesterday- bearish.
Price is now testing the 1.3103/32 threshold as support and a break lower here would suggest a larger correction is underway targeting the slope confluence just lower around ~1.2970 backed by the 200-week moving average / channel support at ~1.2830s.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Bottom line: Look for resist ahead of 1.3288 (61.8% retracement of the recent decline) if this is going to work with a break below 1.31 needed to fuel the next leg lower. Intraday trading levels remain unchanged from last week’s USD/CAD Technical Outlook. Keep in mind we get the release of both US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Canadian employment on Friday with the releases likely to fuel added volatility in the pair.
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USD/CAD Trader Positioning
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD- the ratio stands at -2.94 (25.4% of traders are long) – bullishreading
- Traders have remained net-short since May 22nd; price has moved 2.9% higher since then
- Long positions are 6.5% higher than yesterday and 13.5% lower from last week
- Short positions are0.3% lower than yesterday and 18.4% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to rise. Yet 3traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USD/CAD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
Relevant USD/CAD Data Releases
Economic Calendar – for the latest economic developments and upcoming event risk
Previous Weekly Technical Perspectives
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the US Dollar (DXY)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the Euro (EUR/USD)
- Weekly Technical Perspective on the British Pound (GBP/USD)
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex or contact him at mboutros@dailyfx.com
