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Crude Rises as Geopolitical Concerns Linger, Gold Inches Lower after Channel Test

Crude Rises as Geopolitical Concerns Linger, Gold Inches Lower after Channel Test

2011-02-03 03:51:00
Ilya Spivak, Sumit Roy,
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Commodities – Energy

Crude Rises as Geopolitical Concerns Linger

Crude Oil (WTI) - $90.89 // $0.12 // 0.13%

Commentary: Crude oil was higher on Wednesday, with WTI inching higher by $0.09, or 0.1%, to settle at $90.86, while Brent rose by $0.22, or 0.21%, to settle at $102.56. The protests in Egypt turned violent according to news headlines throughout the day, thus the geopolitical premium in crude oil prices was maintained. If and when the situation settles down, prices are likely due for a bit of a pullback, but the trend clearly remains higher until OPEC- Saudi Arabia in particular- draws a line in the sand and opens the spigots.

Technical Outlook: Prices have put in a bearish Dark Cloud Cover candlestick formation below resistance at $92.58, December’s swing high, hinting a move lower is ahead. Sellers initially target channel bottom support at $85.64.

Crude_Rises_as_Geopolitical_Concerns_Linger_Gold_Inches_Lower_after_Channel_Test_body_02032011_OIL.png, Crude Rises as Geopolitical Concerns Linger, Gold Inches Lower after Channel Test

Commodities – Metals

Gold Inches Lower after Channel Test

Gold - $1335.97 // $0.65 // 0.05%

Commentary: Gold fell $2.78, or 0.21%, to settle at $1335.32. Price action remains muted as the metal continues to digest recent losses and gold ETF holdings inch lower. With economic data globally getting stronger, the prospect of central bank tightening becomes closer to reality. That is obviously bearish for gold all else equal, but given that many long-term fiscal imbalances remain, there is reason to believe that gold will be well-supported at lower prices. The only question is how low do prices have to go to attract buying interest again?

Technical Outlook: Prices are testing the upper boundary of a falling channel that has guided the way lower since the beginning of January (now at $1337.70), a barrier reinforced by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1352.49. A break above here exposes the 50% Fib at $1366.15. Alternatively, renewed downward momentum sees initial support at $1308.25.

Crude_Rises_as_Geopolitical_Concerns_Linger_Gold_Inches_Lower_after_Channel_Test_body_02032011_GLD.png, Crude Rises as Geopolitical Concerns Linger, Gold Inches Lower after Channel Test

Silver - $28.41 // $0.05 // 0.19%

Commentary: Silver fell $0.19, or 0.65%, reversing of its recent outperformance versus gold.

The gold/silver moved lower to 47.1, but remains above the four-year low near 46 set late last year. (The gold/silver ratio measures the relative value/performance of the two precious metals. A higher ratio indicates gold outperformance, while a lower ratio indicates silver outperformance)

Technical Outlook: Prices pulled back after challenging resistance at $28.82, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 1/3-1/28 downswing, having taken out the top of falling channel set from early January. Renewed upward momentum exposes the 61.8% level at $29.39. The initial support lines up at $28.25, the 38.2% Fib, with added reinforcement from the broken channel top (now at $28.07).

Crude_Rises_as_Geopolitical_Concerns_Linger_Gold_Inches_Lower_after_Channel_Test_body_02032011_SLV.png, Crude Rises as Geopolitical Concerns Linger, Gold Inches Lower after Channel Test

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