Crude Oil Recouples With Stock Prices, Gold Little Changed
Commodities - Energy
Crude Oil Recouples With Stock Prices
Crude Oil (WTI) $74.83 +$0.28 +0.38%
There are currently three persistent themes underlying the crude oil market. The first is the strong positive correlation between oil and stock prices. While this relationship broke down on Wednesday, when oil rallied as equities fell, on Thursday the correlation was reestablished. There is little reason to believe that oil will begin to outperform other risky assets anytime soon, largely due to the bearish physical fundamentals we have been harping on—which is the second theme. Indeed, the only likely decoupling scenario is one in which oil falls as stocks rise.
The third theme relates to the $69.50 technical support level. The magnitude of the rally off this level has established a very solid floor that will be difficult to breach. Likewise, the S&P 500 stock index has established its own floor near the $1066 “flash crash” lows. These two key technical levels and their relationship is the third persistent theme that bears watching.
At the moment, crude prices are a bit higher as the commodity digests a stunning two-day rally totaling over 9 percent. Near-term resistance lies at the bottom of the first leg down of the correction around $75.00.
Commodities - Metals
Gold $1210.50 -$2.15 -0.18%
Gold is slightly lower after a quiet session on Thursday. The highlight of this week was the end of cash-raising liquidation that affected the metal all of last week. Expect muted action as the metal consolidates year-to-date gains. In the event broad financial markets continue to rally, a bit of downside may be in the cards. Prices are currently near the midpoint between $1250 resistance and $1166 support.
Silver $18.47 -$0.05 -0.27%
Silver is giving back some gains following a 2.5% move higher in the prior session. Prices have hit resistance at $18.50. A significant move higher from here is unlikely without a corresponding move in gold. Watch the $18.00 level for short-term support, followed by a strong horizontal barrier at $17.60.
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