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Crude Oil Finds Support Below $70, May Recover on US Data

Crude Oil Finds Support Below $70, May Recover on US Data

2010-05-18 06:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Sr. Currency Strategist
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Commodities - Energy

Oil Finds Support Below $70, May Recover on US Data

Crude Oil (WTI)       $70.71       +$0.63       +0.90%
Prices have are testing support at $69.50 – February’s swing low – after breaking support at the bottom of a rising channel established from mid-July 2009. Prices remain strongly correlated with the MSCI World Stock Index, hinting oil may extend losses as the markets continue to digest the festering EU sovereign debt crisis. US Housing Starts headline the economic calendar, with expectations calling for a 650K increase in April. The outcome would amount to the largest increase in 17 months and may offer a bit of support if the it proves to boost near-term risk appetite.

051810 1


Commodities - Metals

Gold Prices to Turn Lower if Risky Assets Rebound

Gold        $1235.45       +$2.75       +0.22%
Prices have stalled ahead of $1250, with a pullback seeing initial support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing from mid-March at $1210.67. The correlation between prices and the VIX index of stock option volatility – the markets’ standby “fear gauge” – remains significant, hinting that further downside may be ahead if US Housing Starts help spur a rebound in risky assets in Wall St trade. A break below this boundary exposes the $1200 figure, followed by the 38.2% Fib at $1186.71.

Silver        $19.47       +$0.05        +0.25%
Prices have turned back from resistance at $19.50 near the December 2009 top, finding initial support at $18.90. A break below this juncture exposes the $18.00 figure.

051810 2


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