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Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 03.15.2012

Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 03.15.2012

2012-03-15 15:35:00
Lior Cohen, Energy Analyst for Trading NRG,
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Gold and silver took a dive and tumbled down all the way back to their levels in 2011. The lingering effects of the recent FOMC meeting may have had a key role in this turn of events. In a recent post I have referred to the effect of changes in U.S money base has on gold price. The FOMC statement just put the kibosh on QE3 at least for the near future. Will this downward trend continue during the day? There are many reports to be published today including: U.S. Jobless Claims, U.S. PPI, U.S. TIC Long Term Purchases and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

Gold tumbled down on Wednesday by 3.03% to $1,642.9; silver also decreased by 4.17% to $32.18. During the month, gold declined by 4% and silver by 7.1%.

The chart below presented the changes in gold and silver during March (prices are normalized to February 29th).

Guest_Commentary_Gold_Silver_Daily_Outlook_03.15.2012_body_Gold_March_15.png, Guest Commentary: Gold & Silver Daily Outlook 03.15.2012

On Today's Agenda

U.S. Jobless Claims Weekly Update:initial claims edged up to 362,000 claims for the week ending on March 3rd;

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: This survey estimates the progress of the U.S manufacturing conditions. In the last survey, the index grew to +10.2 in February 2012. This index, may affect the strength of the USD and thus also gold (the recent Philly Fed review);

U.S. Producer Price Index: This report refers to February 2012. In the previous report regarding January this index for finished goods rose by 0.1% compared with December's rate; this news may affect the direction of gold and silver;

Daily Analysis

Precious metals took a dive during yesterday's trading. Furthermore, the tumble in gold and silver prices yesterday eliminated all the sharp gains these metals prices had in January 2012. The speculation around another QE3 may have subsided following the recent FOMC meeting. If the upcoming US reports will continue to show good signs of progress (Philly Fed, PPI) and then they may further strengthen the U.S dollar, reduce the chances of another QE3 and consequently may adversely affect gold and silver prices. On the other hand, historically, and all things equal, when gold and silver tumble down the next day they usually bounce back. The last time was back in February 29th when gold declined by 4.31% and the following day it rose by 0.64% (however this may have been also due to the expiry of the option). In any case, I speculate if the U.S. reports won't show big improvements then bullion may rebound from yesterday's falls.

This gold and silver analysis was first presents in Trading NRG

For further reading:

Gold and Silver Prices Weekly Outlook for March 12-16

By: Lior Cohen, M.A. in Economics, Commodities Analyst and Blogger at Trading NRG

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