US Dollar Technical Trade Setups: Gold, EUR/USD, USD/CAD Levels
Short-term Trade Outlook: Technical Setups on Gold, EUR/USD & USD/CAD
- Updated charts on technicals setups we’ve been tracking in Gold, USD/JPY & SPX500
- Gold rally struggling at major resistance – breakout levels
- EUR/USD threatens breakout of monthly opening-range- testing resistance
- USD/CAD threatens breakout of monthly opening range- approaching key Fibonacci support
An update on technical setups we've been tracking inthe Gold, Euro and the Canadian Dollar. These are the targets and invalidation levels that matter heading into the close of the week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of thesetechnical setups and more.
Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD 240min
Notes: In this week’s Gold Shor-term Technical Outlook we noted that XAU/USD was approaching downtrend resistance with 1791 and 1818/27 both areas of interest for possible near-term exhaustion. Price has continued to straddle the January low-week close at 1791 for the past few sessions, leaving this breakout vulnerable into the close of the week. I’ve re-adjusted the slope a bit but the lateral levels remain unchanged.
Bottom line: Outlook Unchanged – “losses should be limited to 1753 IF price is indeed heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1827 needed to suggest a larger trend reversal is underway in Gold.” Review my latest Gold Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD technical trade levels.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min
Notes: In this week’s EUR/USD Short-term Technical Outlook we warned that Euro was approaching critical, “downtrend resistance at 1.0352/85- a region defined by the 2016 low & the 2016 low-day close. We’re looking for possible price inflection here with a topside breach / close above needed to keep the immediate advance viable in the days ahead.” Price has ben testing this resistance threshold all week with a potential breakout pending.
Bottom line: We remain on the lookout for possible price inflection here – losses should be limited to the lower parallel of the July upslope IF Price is heading higher on this stretch. Support / short-term bullish invalidation now raised to 1.0226. From at trading standpoint, a daily / weekly close above 1.0385 still needed to keep a rally towards key Fibonacci resistance at 1.0465/68 on the table. Review my latest Euro Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min
Notes: In last week’s Canadian Dollar Short-term Technical Outlook, we sighted the risk for recovery back towards downtrend resistance in USD/CAD after rebounding off the June low-week close at 1.2784. We noted that, “A break lower from here keeps the focus on subsequent support objectives at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1.2716- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.” Price registered a high at the 75% parallel in the following days before plunging lower with the decline now within striking distance of 1.2716. Bearish invalidation now lowered to the objective weekly open which converges on the 2021 high-day close and the 2019 low at 1.2938/52.
Bottom line: The USD/CAD sell-off is approaching confluent downtrend support. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops – rallies should be limited to the he median-line (currently ~1.2830s) IF price is indeed heading lower on this stretch with such a scenario exposing the objective yearly open at 1.2640. Review my latest USD/CAD Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term Canadian Dollar technical trade levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
-Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.