Near-term Trade Setups in AUD/USD, GBP/USD & USD/CAD
- Updated levels on trade setup we’ve been tracking in AUD/USD, GBP/USD & USD/CAD
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Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of these setups and more.
Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min
In my most recent Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook we noted that, “The Aussie pullback is testing monthly uptrend support and needs to hold the 68-pivot zone IF price is indeed heading higher.” AUD/USD registered a low at 6810 this week before reversing with the rebound now approaching the monthly highs / 50% retracement at 6879.
Look for a reaction on this stretch with a topside breach needed to fuel the next leg higher in price targeting 6910 and 6924/27 – an area interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Initial support 6833 with bullish invalidation steady at 6802. Review my latest Australian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term term AUD/USD technical trading levels.
Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +1.30 (56.61% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
- Long positions are 3.53% lower than yesterday and 9.86% higher from last week
- Short positions are 8.92% lower than yesterday and 16.63% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
See how shifts in Aussie retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min
In last week’s British Pound Dollar Price Outlook we highlighted that Sterling was, “approaching near-term uptrend resistance and leaves the immediate advance vulnerable heading into the upper parallel. Look for possible exhaustion up here with a set-back to offer more favorable entries.” GBP/USD turned from the upper parallel last week with the pullback setting up the weekly opening-range just above support here at 1.2818/37.
A break lower from here exposes 1.2754 & the 1.27-handle- look for possible exhaustion off one of these levels IF reached. Initial resistance at 1.2926 with a breach above 1.2990 needed to mark resumption targeting 1.3076. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term technical trade levels.
Sterling Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.23 (55.11% of traders are long) – weak bearish reading
- Long positions are 0.18% lower than yesterday and 3.87% higher from last week
- Short positions are 0.44% lower than yesterday and 13.96% lower from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias. from a sentiment standpoint.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min
My last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that the, “USD/CAD breakdown is approaching the first main support hurdle here at 1.3050- threat of near-term downside exhaustion.” Price registered a low 1.3042 today before rebounding – here’s the recovery. Look for exhaustion on a stretch towards 1.3134 or 1.3206 over the next few days. A downside break from here exposes 1.2971. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.