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EURUSD and GBPUSD Trades Versus the More Volatile

EURUSD and GBPUSD Trades Versus the More Volatile

2014-02-22 02:54:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist
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This past week, we have seen a material downshift in volatility and sidelining of dominant fundamental trends (such as an Emerging Market rout). As much as I would like to see the bigger themes - full-blown risk trends or a material monetary policy change - pick up, there are a number of hurddles that we need to clear before we get to that scale. In the meantime, there is plenty of short-term opportunity.

The only trade I'm carrying over from this past week is my AUDCAD (from 0.9865). Having already took the first half off for +95 below a heavy resistance, I have moved up the stop on the second half to breakeven. Parity (1.0000) is proving difficult to overcome. If we clear that threshold, the follow through can be substantial.

For short-term setups, the risk sensitive are good candidates. I was short GBPJPY this past week and managed to hit a first target of +135 before the second half was taken out at breakeven. If there is a close below 170 and/or move below 169.25 alongside an equity market drop, I'd like a short. Should the S&P 500 make a move to break 1850 (highly probable) a break above 171.75 would be a good long setup.

There are plenty of risk sensitive pairs out there that are immediately open to upside or downside breaks given the right impetus. EURJPY (above 141 or below 140 on a close basis). AUDJPY (above 93 or below 91).

EURUSD looks like a strong breakout candidate from 1.3775 to 1.3685, but it is unlikely to be a 'risk' move. I'd prefer to play a bearish break as a bullish move will be immediately troubled by heavy resistance at 1.3850.

GBPUSD is another attractive pair, but it is crawling through support without much drive. I like it below 1.6750, but momentum is a critical factor - otherwise, we are playing with fire in trying to pick a top. And it could be a long wait to hold off for 1.6250.

I like the immediate breakout potential of GBPAUD from its 1.8650 and 1.8450. A bigger play could come through a large head-and-shoulders neckline break below 1.8100. Similarly, a clean H&S can be seen on EURAUD with a necline at 1.5000.

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