News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.10% Gold: -0.38% Silver: -0.81% View the performance of all markets via
  • RT @tracyalloway: Yields on the junkiest of junk bonds (CCC-rated) hit another all-time low, coming in at just 5.66%.…
  • RT @FxWestwater: Euro Technical Forecast: $EURUSD, $EURAUD, $EURJPY Charts to Watch Link:
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇦CAD: -0.08% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.10% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.31% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.32% View the performance of all markets via
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.21%, while traders in GBP/USD are at opposite extremes with 68.58%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX:
  • 🇦🇺 Building Permits MoM Final (MAR) Actual: 17.4% Expected: 17.4% Previous: 20.1%
  • Biden EPA expands fuel waivers to blunt gas shortages - BBG #OOTT $CL_F
  • The US Dollar is still struggling against most ASEAN currencies. USD/SGD remains downside-focused despite recent gains. USD/THB is eyeing a triangle. USD/IDR and USD/PHP may point lower.
  • USD/Yuan reference rate set to 6.4258 - BBG $USDCNH
Lots of Potential with Dollar and Equities but Wait for the Break

Lots of Potential with Dollar and Equities but Wait for the Break

John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

The end to this past week was the perfect setup for a seismic shift in the near future. Of course, just because the setup is there, doesn't mean that it has to play out. Patience is key, and it is exceptionally important to practice given the level of shift that can come and the frequency of false starts we have seen.

Where is the potential: recently the USDollar has advanced back into the top of its descending trend channel (from June 1) / 50-day MA while the S&P 500 has dropped back to its own channel floor and pivot support above 1425. Though they are threatening breaks in the opposite direction (notionally), such a move would speak volumes fundamentally. Such a move would be a big step towards risk aversion.

However, when we have sharp moves to heavy levels (and the future of risk trends is about as heavy as it gets) into the end of a week, an immediate break the following week is historically a low probability event. I don't want to diminish the considerable potential in such a break but I'm a realist. I'll wait to see a clear break on both accounts before the full size and more aggressive targets are brought out.

For now, I am in smaller size and have far less risk exposure. My only direct exposure over the weekend is a EURUSD short from around 1.3100 (I took profit on the first half for 85 pips and trailed the stop on the second half to break even). This is a good pair to play on a serious break lower for risk. The next big level of support to clear that I see though is 1.2825. That may actually play in this pair's favor if risk trends are mute for the first 48 hours (EURUSD may continue drifting lower to set up good position for a break).

My other trades are further removed from risk. My USDJPY long from the channel break at 79.00 has a 100 pip stop and is expected to be a slow mover. A USDollar channel break would be very influential hear. My smaller size EURGBP long (from below 0.8000) is well in the money and the stop is trailed above breakeven. AUDNZD has less risk sensitive but the strong Aussie dollar has drug it into the read. Continuing above 1.27 would require an exit and reevaluation as to where it will turn.

As for trade potential next week, the opportunities seem endless. A sizable risk move has far-reaching implications. With a strong risk aversion drive, I like playing EURUSD separately on a break below 1.2800; NZDUSD with a break below 0.8100; a reversal (and range play) on AUDJPY below 81.65; AUDUSD below 1.0150; and there are others.

It's always good to have a plan for an alternative scenario. I think a strong risk rally is very unlikely, but in the event that it does occur I like GBPJPY above 128.50. The most likely path going forward: congestion. That will necessitate shorter-term trades within congestion patterns with smaller size. We'll take those as they come.

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.