We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • US equities continue to run higher with the Nasdaq 100 setting a fresh all-time-high, not even three months after giving back almost a third of its value in about a month. Get your #Nasdaq technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/1LI54uvI8x https://t.co/e9FvSLqfaA
  • The US Dollar may be at risk to losses against some of its #ASEAN counterparts. USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR have recently broken to the downside. Will losses continue? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/0RTlj6maTT https://t.co/UyQ4i0AihI
  • The British Pound technical outlook still seems to favor the downside. GBP/CAD may pressure key rising support from August as GBP/AUD could prolong its downtrend. GBP/CHF may fall. Get your $GBP market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/hBOpDKXmfW https://t.co/AJlT2YKeCu
  • USD/JPY is approaching medium-term uptrend resistance and while the outlook remains constructive, the advance may be vulnerable near-term while below confluence resistance. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/93D7AyhHtG https://t.co/KQcLLrkMP3
  • AUD/USD has had the most impressive show of trend over the past couple of months with the pair gaining almost 1500 pips from the March low. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vLz4Rpln3u https://t.co/AOwnJja5V8
  • Has the #Euro been saved? Find out from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eiXfOTyGa6 https://t.co/AyRiYpb4cN
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/ygwjGNvS61
  • The $USD, Euro, British Pound and Australian Dollar will all be at the mercy of political developments in Asia, Europe and North America this week. An avalanche of PMI data will set the backdrop. Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/L8cfAgVx94 https://t.co/THWhPAS6AM
  • The price of #gold plunged 1% immediately after the stunning US jobs report crossed the wires. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/8i0L6YIqjy https://t.co/y9dIXazJf9
  • S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq explode higher with stocks surging in response to shockingly better-than-expected monthly jobs data. Get your #equities market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/nuMVWOzzuC https://t.co/M3nGBjd7kZ
Lots of Potential with Dollar and Equities but Wait for the Break

Lots of Potential with Dollar and Equities but Wait for the Break

2012-10-20 05:24:00
John Kicklighter, Chief Strategist

The end to this past week was the perfect setup for a seismic shift in the near future. Of course, just because the setup is there, doesn't mean that it has to play out. Patience is key, and it is exceptionally important to practice given the level of shift that can come and the frequency of false starts we have seen.

Where is the potential: recently the USDollar has advanced back into the top of its descending trend channel (from June 1) / 50-day MA while the S&P 500 has dropped back to its own channel floor and pivot support above 1425. Though they are threatening breaks in the opposite direction (notionally), such a move would speak volumes fundamentally. Such a move would be a big step towards risk aversion.

However, when we have sharp moves to heavy levels (and the future of risk trends is about as heavy as it gets) into the end of a week, an immediate break the following week is historically a low probability event. I don't want to diminish the considerable potential in such a break but I'm a realist. I'll wait to see a clear break on both accounts before the full size and more aggressive targets are brought out.

For now, I am in smaller size and have far less risk exposure. My only direct exposure over the weekend is a EURUSD short from around 1.3100 (I took profit on the first half for 85 pips and trailed the stop on the second half to break even). This is a good pair to play on a serious break lower for risk. The next big level of support to clear that I see though is 1.2825. That may actually play in this pair's favor if risk trends are mute for the first 48 hours (EURUSD may continue drifting lower to set up good position for a break).

My other trades are further removed from risk. My USDJPY long from the channel break at 79.00 has a 100 pip stop and is expected to be a slow mover. A USDollar channel break would be very influential hear. My smaller size EURGBP long (from below 0.8000) is well in the money and the stop is trailed above breakeven. AUDNZD has less risk sensitive but the strong Aussie dollar has drug it into the read. Continuing above 1.27 would require an exit and reevaluation as to where it will turn.

As for trade potential next week, the opportunities seem endless. A sizable risk move has far-reaching implications. With a strong risk aversion drive, I like playing EURUSD separately on a break below 1.2800; NZDUSD with a break below 0.8100; a reversal (and range play) on AUDJPY below 81.65; AUDUSD below 1.0150; and there are others.

It's always good to have a plan for an alternative scenario. I think a strong risk rally is very unlikely, but in the event that it does occur I like GBPJPY above 128.50. The most likely path going forward: congestion. That will necessitate shorter-term trades within congestion patterns with smaller size. We'll take those as they come.

Sign up for John’s email distribution list, here.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.