Jamie's Pick: 05/11/11
There are US Dollar bullish opportunities across the board right now but from a risk standpoint I like being short the EURUSD and NZDUSD. The EURUSD stop is 14425 and the NZDUSD stop is 8130. The EURUSD target is 13750 and the NZDUSD target is 7675. In general, I like being short 'risk' (long US Dollar) until the middle of next week.
The EURUSD rally into 14423 is the largest since the decline from above 14900 – weakness since has been sharp and gives scope to the next leg down. 14150, the 4/18 low and 38.2% retracement of the rally from 12874, is potential support but there would be 2 equal legs down from above 14900 at 13736 which intersects with corrective channel support on May 16th (keep this date in mind). The drop to this level would constitute wave B within an A-B-C advance from 12874. Additional levels that may offer support are 14000 and 13861. Trading above 14423 would delay the bearish outcome and shift focus to resistance between 14510 and 14600.
I remain bearish the NZDUSD. Divergence at the recent top combined with an impulsive decline (5 waves) and corrective advance (3 waves) gives scope to a sharp drop in either a 3rd or C wave. Objectives are the 100% extension at 7666 (also 100 day SMA) and 2/18 high) and the 7500 area – which is defined by the 61.8% retracement of the rally from 7114, 161.8% extension of the decline from the top and 200 day MA. The near term head and shoulders pattern bolsters the bearish view. The 100% extension intersects parallel channel support on May16th.
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