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British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Claws Back – Bear Reset Ahead

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD Claws Back – Bear Reset Ahead

Michael Boutros, Strategist

British Pound Technical Price Outlook: GBP/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Sterling technical trade level update – Weekly Chart
  • GBP/USD collapses into downtrend support / record lows- risk for exhaustion into October open
  • Weekly resistance 1.11, 1.1290s, 1.1414/80 (key) – Support 1.0640, 1.0520, 1.0350s, parity

The British Pound plunged more than 4.6% against the US Dollar into the weekly open before paring the entire decline with GBP/USD responding to long-term downtrend support. While the broader outlook remains weighted to the downside, the threat of a near-term recovery may offer more favorable opportunities into the October open. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the GBP/USD weekly chart into the close of the quarter. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more.

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British Pound Price Chart - GBP/USD Weekly

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Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last British Pound Weekly Technical Forecast we noted that GBP/USD was approaching a, “key support pivot at the 2020 / 1984 lows at 1.1414/80- looking for possible price inflection off this zone in the days ahead. A break / close below this threshold would risk substantial Sterling losses. . .” Cable collapsed the following week with price plummeting more than 11.7% off the September highs – the decline exhausted / rebounded (with precision) this week off the 25% parallel of the descending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the 2019 / 2020 highs. The risk is for some back & fill here into the close of the month after failing to hold fresh record lows.

Initial weekly resistance now eyed back at the 1.11-handle backed by the median-line (currently ~1.1290s). Ultimately, a breach / close back above 1.1414/80 would be needed to suggest a more significant low was registered this week. Initial weekly support rests with the 1985 record low-close at 1.0640 backed by the 1985 low at 1.0520 and the lower parallel (~1.0350s)- weakness beyond this threshold would likely fuel another accelerated decline towards parity.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Bottom Line: The British Pound plunge has responded to downtrend support on a massive multi-week stretch to fresh record lows. The threat for a larger recovery remains on the back of this sell-off and the focus is for possible topside exhaustion into the October open. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 1.1480 IF price is indeed heading lower with a break / weekly close below 1.0520 needed to mark resumption of the broader downtrend. Stay nimble heading into the close of the month / quarter with key US inflation data on Friday likely to fuel some volatility here. I’ll publish an updated Sterling short-term trade outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.

GBP Forecast
GBP Forecast
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British Pound Trader Sentiment - GBP/USD Price Chart

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  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long GBP/USD - the ratio stands at +1.99 (66.57% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 5.27% lower than yesterday and 9.73% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.77% lower than yesterday and 87.18% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current GBP/USD price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

{{SENTIMENT|GBPUSD|Learn how shifts in GBP/USD retail positioning impact trend}}

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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