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Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Plunges to Pivotal Support

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Plunges to Pivotal Support

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Australian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • Australian Dollar technical trade level update - Weekly Chart
  • AUD/USD plunges back towards downtrend support US post-CPI release
  • Aussie resistance 6930s, 6991-7016 (key) 7139- Support 6621/70 (critical), 6461, 6196
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The Australian Dollar plunged more than 2.2% against the US Dollar on the heels of a hotter than expected US inflation read with AUD/USD now approaching multi-year downtrend support. We’re looking for possible price inflection here with a break lower threatening an even sharper Aussie sell-off. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie technical setup and more.

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD Weekly - Aussie Trade Outlook - AUDUSD Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In our July, AUD/USD Technical Forecast we highlighted that that AUD/USD had rebounded off the lower parallel of this multi-year descending pitchfork formation – that recovery failed into the median-line / August 2021 low-week close at 7138 last month before reversing sharply with the decline now once again approaching the lower parallel. It’s decision time for the Aussie bears.

A break below this slope exposes a key support pivot at 6621/70- a region defined by the 100% extension of the 2021 decline , the 2008 low-week close and the 2019 low. Ultimately, a close below this threshold would be needed to fuel the next leg lower in price towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2020 rally at 6461. Initial weekly resistance is eyed at the 25% parallel (currently ~6930s) backed by the November 2020 low / 2020 yearly open at 6991-7016. Broader bearish invalidation now lowered to the 52-week moving average which converges on the median-line around 7139.

AUD Forecast
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Bottom line: The Australian Dollar is approaching multi-year downtrend support and we’re looking for a reaction in price on a stretch towards the lower parallel – watch the weekly close. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be capped by the monthly open at 6840 IF price is indeed heading lower with a close below 6621 needed to fuel the next major-leg lower in price. I’ll publish an updated Australian Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the short-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment – AUD/USD Price Chart

Australian Dollar Trader Sentiment - AUD/USD Price Chart - Aussie Retail Positioning - AUDUSD Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long AUD/USD - the ratio stands at +2.43 (70.85% of traders are long) – typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 2.41% higher than yesterday and 18.31% lower from last week
  • Short positions are26.43% lower than yesterday and 19.54% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests AUD/USD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger AUD/USD-bearish contrarian trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
AUD/USD Mixed
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 1% -7% -1%
Weekly -8% 3% -6%
Learn how shifts in Aussie retail positioning impact trend
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Australia / US Economic Calendar

Australia / US Economic Calendar - AUD/USD Key Data Releases - Aussie Weekly Event Risk

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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