US non-farm payrolls (NFPs) are anticipated to fall negative for the tenth consecutive month on October, and the odds are looking in favor of a very disappointing reading given this morning's employment releases. First, Challenger Job Cuts surged 78.9 percent from a year earlier in October, marking the eighth straight month of growing job losses. Meanwhile, the ADP Net Employment Change plunged in October for the third consecutive month to match the November 2002 low of -157K. While these readings are not as bad as the levels we saw in mid-2001, they nevertheless signal a clear deterioration in the labor markets.
Challenger Job Cuts (YoY, Monthly Chart) Source: Bloomberg ADP Employment Change (Monthly Chart) Source: Bloomberg