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Forex: Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

By , Sr. Technical Strategist
28 November 2012 21:05 GMT

Euro / Japanese Yen

240 Minute Bars

Forex_Trade_Setups_Maturing_in_Euro_Commodity_FX_Crosses_body_EURJPY.png, Forex: Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Technical Analysis Observations: I touched on the EURJPY in this morning’s notes. The advance from the low this morning is sharp but price has returned to test resistance at 10600 (former support at 10607). Resistance extends to the 61.8% of the decline from 10712 at 10640. Once (if) the market turns lower again, objectives are 10458 and 10375 (former is former resistance and 38.2% of rally from 10031 and latter is middle of former congestion and 50% level).

FOREX Trading: I just exited the short from 10640 (released via Twitter @JamieSaettele) and am looking to return to the short side once again at 10620/40. Risk is the Monday high at 10712.

Euro / Austraian Dollar

Daily Bars

Forex_Trade_Setups_Maturing_in_Euro_Commodity_FX_Crosses_body_euraud.png, Forex: Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Technical Analysis Observations: After spending 4 days at the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 12825, the EURAUD has decided on a direction…lower. Viewed in the context of the 3 wave rally from 12158, the trend is lower against 12426 towards new lows.

FOREX Trading: Short term resistance for bearish entry is 12360/70. Risk is the 11/22 high at 12426 and the objective is a new low (below 12158). The 61.8% retracement of the rally from 11600 is at 12068 and of interest as a target.

Euro / British Pound

Daily Bars

Forex_Trade_Setups_Maturing_in_Euro_Commodity_FX_Crosses_body_EURGBP.png, Forex: Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Technical Analysis Observations: I wrote last update that “it’s important to realize that the EUR/GBP rally from 7751 is probably a leading diagonal for several reasons. Leading diagonals are motive waves that occur as wave 1 or A but the subsequent 2nd or B wave often retraces a significant amount of the leading diagonal. Price has bounced from the 50% retracement. Allowing for additional strength off of the 50% retracement, expect resistance at/between recent pivot highs of 8030 and 8074 before the next leg of weakness towards deeper retracements levels at 7908 and perhaps 7839.” The EURGBP made it all the way to 8113 before reversing yesterday. In fact, a JS Spike formed yesterday. The decline from yesterday’s high (8113) is impulsive. The weight of evidence is bearish once more.

FOREX Trading: 8089 is near term resistance and the trend is down as long as price is below 8113.

Canadian Dollar / Swiss Franc

Daily Bars

Forex_Trade_Setups_Maturing_in_Euro_Commodity_FX_Crosses_body_cadchf.png, Forex: Trade Setups Maturing in Euro Commodity FX Crosses

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

FOREX Technical Analysis Observations: 4 weeks ago the CADCHF made a weekly JS Spike. The rally from 9273 is clearly impulsive. The decline from 9542 channels in a corrective manner and yesterday’s low reversed 2 pips above the 10/31 reversal day close (and at the opening range of the month). The time consuming decline from 9542 may finally be complete.

FOREX Trading: I am bullish against 9273 for an eventual move through 9542 and beyond. 9628 may be of interest in several weeks.

--- Written by Jamie Saettele, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist for DailyFX.com

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28 November 2012 21:05 GMT