We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The spread of #coronavirus promises a global economic hit at a time when the global economy is perhaps especially ill-equipped to deal with one. Growth-correlated assets are vulnerable. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/0If0Jw7c2P https://t.co/mph6z70XeF
  • The $JPY continues to struggle against the US Dollar but there seems little appetite to push USD/JPY much beyond a range which has tended to reassert itself since late last year. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/iaVfPSuXy4 https://t.co/1QPhJmYlQv
  • The #Euro may bounce after hitting the lowest level in close to three years against the US Dollar. While the broader trend points firmly lower, selling pressure may be ebbing. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/697SQ9j5FY https://t.co/6SEvwQyod8
  • GBP/CAD has broken below the September uptrend while EUR/CAD may be ending its consecutive 12 day decline with EUR/CHF approaching key resistance as NZD/CAD aims at November lows. Get your currencies update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/GpRB7IKhTA https://t.co/hlHlGdhkHc
  • The $GBP recoiled from chart resistance against the US Dollar, setting the stage for prices to resume a bearish trend reversal triggered mid-January. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/lVpyZkIfJt https://t.co/9oXusxs0Kg
  • The #Euro may have more room to fall versus its major peers such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and British Pound. What is the technical picture of EUR/USD, EUR/JPY and EUR/GBP? Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/M6fLA9g3BK https://t.co/HMwQgr1WP5
  • The $USD’s aggressive rise versus ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso prolonged. What is the technical road ahead? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/RsFptNzODf https://t.co/u8meQUSsVG
  • $AUD broke critical range support against its US counterpart, suggesting deeper losses are ahead even after prices hit an 11-year low. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here:https://t.co/45YpJRjDYj https://t.co/zWAzaL78Sc
  • After negotiating a series of economic and geopolitical risks in 2019, the S&P 500 rounded out the year more than 30% higher. Will the stock market crash in 2020? Find out from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/8KsjB9YkBB https://t.co/4ph9bdMxz9
  • Italy reports first death from coronavirus - BBG
Weaker US Dollar Index Drives EUR/USD Higher; S&P500 Tries to Join the Party

Weaker US Dollar Index Drives EUR/USD Higher; S&P500 Tries to Join the Party

2019-10-21 20:03:00
Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M, Senior Strategist

The Elliott wave patterns for DXY and EUR/USD show potential for continued US Dollar weakness. S&P 500 may see new highs in a terminal wave.

The video above is a recording of a US Opening Bell webinar from October 21, 2019. We focused on the Elliott wave patterns for key markets such as US Dollar Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, silver, gold, S&P 500 and Ethereum.

US Dollar Index Breaks Support Opening Door to 94.60

US Dollar Index finally broke lower after drifting into a high on October 1. From an Elliott wave perspective, this high appears very important as several wave pictures point towards a retracement down to 94.60. From there, some of the models diverge with some wave counts pointing to even lower levels into the 80’s.

Let’s take this one step at a time and see if DXY is successful is dropping down below 94.60. From there, we can assess the probabilities of the various wave counts.

According to the intraday Elliott wave chart on the right, we are in wave iii of (iii). This suggests more waves lower to finish of iv-v-(iv)-(v).

Read also: how to trade US Dollar Index

US Dollar index forecast for a weaker dollar using elliott wave labels.

EURUSD Broke the Trendline, Evidence Builds a Meaningful Low is in Place

EUR/USD has rallied as forecasted on October 1. At that time, we suggested a rally above 1.1115 would be enough to consider a meaningful low in place. Last week, EUR/USD found enough strength to rally beyond this key level.

It appears EURUSD is in wave .iii of 3 and therefore is in a buy the dip bias. Additionally, trader sentiment recently flipped on October 10 to being net negative on a daily basis (a bullish signal). The current IG Client Sentiment read of 61% short is the largest reading of short traders since March 2019. At the current juncture of price, it would be normal if EURUSD dipped back near 1.11, but under the current wave picture it would need to hold above 1.1063 with targets still pointing towards 1.18.

EUR-USD elliott wave forecast for a large rally up to 1.18 and possibly higher.

S&P500 Moves Higher…Slowly

S&P500 can’t shake the trading range and is nearing the highs of the range. The price action and Elliott wave structure suggests to me that new highs are nearby. It would be normal for new highs to work up to levels near 3300, though it doesn’t have to. The placement of this large triangle is a giveaway that if a run to new highs takes share, it would be a terminal wave as jumps out of triangles are terminal at the same degree of trend.

Therefore, rallies are viewed as temporary and a break of the support trend line would become more significant. A lower low below 2777 shifts the bias to focus on the December 2018 retest of the low.

Read also: How to trade S&P 500

S&P 500 rally appears incomplete according to elliott wave principle.

Ethereum price forecast is for higher levels

From the low in December 2018 to the next low in September 2019, this pattern is an Elliott wave 5-3 structure. If my assessment of this pattern is correct, then the ETH/USD price outlook is bullish for the cryptocurrency and a large rally may be under foot to above $364 and higher levels.

Watch the green resistance channel line for additional confirmation of the rally. A break above the green trend line suggests the downtrend wave from June 2019 is over and opens the door to the ‘X’ wave high near 250. A similar pattern is found in Bitcoin, though not as clear as Ether at the moment.

ethereum price forecast using elliott wave theory.

Learn more on Elliott wave including the rules and guidelines by grabbing these beginners and advanced Elliott Wave trading guides.

After reviewing the guides above, be sure to follow future Elliott Wave articles to see Elliott Wave Theory in action.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy Wagner is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master’s designation. Jeremy provides Elliott Wave analysis on key markets as well as Elliott Wave educational resources. Read more of Jeremy’s Elliott Wave reports via his bio page.

Join Jeremy in his live US Opening Bell webinar where these markets and more are discussed through Elliott wave theory.

Follow Jeremy on Twitter at @JWagnerFXTrader .

Recent Elliott Wave analysis you might be interested in…

EURUSD Elliott Wave forecast – enough evidence points to a large rally

ETH/USD price outlook is bullish

8 scenarios after an Elliott wave impulse pattern completes

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.