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Technical Analysis for Gold & Silver, Oil, DAX, S&P 500, and More

Technical Analysis for Gold & Silver, Oil, DAX, S&P 500, and More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Gold & silver are both coming off resistance levels, putting burden of proof on buyers’ backs. Crude oil is hanging strong, has support not far below. The DAX may get in gear if the euro can at least pause, while U.S. indices are in a tough position for traders.

Highlights:

  • Gold & silver both pulling back off resistance, shifts focus lower for now
  • Crude oil trend very strong, has slope support not far below
  • DAX may find help from a stalling euro; S&P 500, NDX, and Dow hold poor risk/reward

For longer-term technical and fundamental analysis, and to view DailyFX analysts’ top trading ideas for 2018, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Gold & silver both pulling back off resistance, shifts focus lower for now

As we discussed yesterday, both gold and silver arrived at resistance which may keep a lid on a further advance. Gold is pulling back form the 2013 trend-line, while silver is falling sharply today from a confluence of resistance by way of a key price zone up to 17.46 and the 2016 trend-line.

For now, the outlook is lower, especially for silver which has lagged gold for some time now. As long as precious metals stay below their respective resistance levels this bias will remain intact. If gold makes a big push lower, a long-term triangle could become visible. More on this later should it become relevant...

Chart 1 – Gold: Daily

gold daily price chart

Crude oil trend very strong, has slope support not far below

Crude oil has been a monster despite speculators already holding a very large position in the futures market (suggesting 'overbullishness'). As we said in the weekly CoT update, this won’t become relevant until price action backs it up.

At the moment, oil is extended but doesn’t mean it’s a short. The first reaction line on the radar is a slope from July it overcame recently. Below there we will look to support around 62, which is the top portion of a consolidation-period formed during 2015.

Struggling with confidence? You’re not alone. Check out this guide, Building Confidence in Trading

Chart 2 – Crude Oil: Daily

us crude oil daily price chart

DAX may find help from a stalling euro

As noted in this morning’s DAX commentary, the index has been under pressure by a surging euro. The currency’s short-term influence has been felt, but the 1-month correlation just turned positive, an unusual occurrence. With the euro looking extended, even a pause may be all that is needed for the market to trade higher.

As long as 13151 holds, so does a neutral to bullish bias. There is minor trend-line resistance off the record high, but of more importance is the monthly high at 13425. A breakout above will quickly bring the record high at 13525 into view.

Chart 3 – DAX: Daily

dax daily price chart

We also looked at the CAC, which has held better than its German counterpart. A breakout above 5536 is needed for more upside, but longer-term overhead trend-lines (~5570) may soon stall momentum. The FTSE is nearing the 7850/900 target zone. Tactically, it doesn’t hold good risk/reward right now.

Risk/reward is also lacking in the U.S., where indices are extremely extended at the moment. Too high to buy, too strong to short is the general feeling on this end.

For full technical considerations, please see the video above…

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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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