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Dollar Disintegration: Price Action Setups (7.18.2017)

Dollar Disintegration: Price Action Setups (7.18.2017)

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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- In this webinar, we used price action to look at macro markets after another breakdown in the U.S. Dollar to open this week.

- We started off by looking at ‘DXY’ as a representation of the U.S. Dollar. DXY has posed another under-side break and has now fallen below the psychological level of 95.00. While this is the weakness that we’re looking for in our Q3 forecast for USD, few would’ve expected such a move to materialize so quickly. This break of 95 opens the door for potential support levels at 94.08 and 93.02. Should those levels not hold, the May 2016 swing low at 91.92 becomes a point-of-interest.

- We then moved over to EUR/USD, which has put in a rather robust break of the 1.1500-handle. We have one target remaining in our previous long EUR/USD analyst pick at 1.1615.

- We then looked at the bullish breakout in AUD/USD. The pair has traded up to fresh 14-month highs, but resistance is showing at a key Fibonacci level. Just above that level is the .80-handle, and this could be a novel area to watch for resistance to develop, which could then lead to a higher-low for a bullish continuation strategy.

- We then moved over to GBP/USD, which underwent a retracement this morning after U.K. inflation came-in below expectations. Buyers showed-up at the 1.3000-handle, giving the appearance that bullish continuation could be warranted. We moved down to a shorter-term chart to highlight the fact that a deeper retracement may be seen before the bullish move in Cable is ready to resume, and for that purpose, we zeroed-in on potential support levels at 1.2920 and around 1.2850.

- We then looked at NZD/USD, which is showing chaos on shorter-term charts. But as we scrolled out to the daily or longer, the setup became a bit clearer as a symmetrical wedge that’s been active for more than a year is in the process of giving way.

- USD/CAD continues its precipitous drop, and this morning’s price action has run into a long-term Fibonacci level that appears to be garnering support. While this move is really attractive, the fact that both USD weakness and CAD strength are rather stretched could make continuation strategies a challenge here. For traders looking to trade a continuation of CAD-strength, CAD/JPY could be a bit more attractive at the moment.

- USD/JPY is testing the longer-term support zone that runs from 111.61-112.40. This has been a huge zone for USD/JPY price action, and this can open the door to bullish continuation approaches as this is one of the few pairs that could be attractive from the perspective of USD-strength.

- GBP/JPY – we went over the setup in a bit more depth during the webinar, but I pointed out what could be highlighting a bearish reversal setup.

- GoldGold prices are approaching a critical level at $1,250. I shared how I can use a zone around this level to look for bearish continuation approaches.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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