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Trading Outlook: NFPs, USD-pairs, Crude Oil, Gold Price & More

Trading Outlook: NFPs, USD-pairs, Crude Oil, Gold Price & More

Paul Robinson, Strategist

Join Paul Tuesday-Friday for webinars each week, for details please see the Webinar Calendar.

We first started out by discussing today’s U.S. jobs report, and expressed that USD is set up for lower prices from a technical standpoint and that a really outsized NFP print to the top-side would likely be required to motivate material buying pressure. Otherwise, a smallish beat or miss appears likely to be a sale. No predictions on this end, only reaction.

EURUSD looks good, but does need to overcome last week’s high which came at a long-term trend-line and price resistance first before gaining traction towards the 2016 high over 11600. GBPUSD is constructive but could use a little more time; 13400/500 is the broader objective. USDJPY still has a little room to run before hitting the May swing-high. USDCAD is treading water below resistance and the bias remains bearish as long as it stays beneath 13014 on a closing basis. NZDUSD is still a preferred short off big resistance. USDMXN put in a key reversal bar off price resistance and trend-line; looks headed lower in line with the broader trend.

Gold is ready to slip further, but may see a momentary pop today if the dollar sells off. Silver made a quirky flash-crash move during Asia trade last night to the tune of 10%+. Taking out the blip, it still looks headed towards the December low at 15.64 and worse.

Crude oil touched the 47 level earlier this week, a level we had our eye on as resistance. The resulting down-move we’ve seen indeed validated the figures importance. In the short-term, risk of a bounce is growing, but looking to any bounce which may unfold as a potential selling opportunity.

Global indices are teetering and could soon set in motion a full-on risk off event. The DAX is dangerously close to falling into the April gap, while the CAC 40 is already in ‘gap-fill’ mode. The FTSE 100 is below important resistance and looks headed to continue lower. The S&P 500 is only points away from breaking all near-term support; a move towards 2350 could soon develop if support fails.

For the full outlook, please see the video above…

Looking for a longer-term view on markets? Check out our Q3 Forecasts.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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