Trading Outlook: NFPs, USD-pairs, Crude Oil, Gold Price & More
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We first started out by discussing today’s U.S. jobs report, and expressed that USD is set up for lower prices from a technical standpoint and that a really outsized NFP print to the top-side would likely be required to motivate material buying pressure. Otherwise, a smallish beat or miss appears likely to be a sale. No predictions on this end, only reaction.
EURUSD looks good, but does need to overcome last week’s high which came at a long-term trend-line and price resistance first before gaining traction towards the 2016 high over 11600. GBPUSD is constructive but could use a little more time; 13400/500 is the broader objective. USDJPY still has a little room to run before hitting the May swing-high. USDCAD is treading water below resistance and the bias remains bearish as long as it stays beneath 13014 on a closing basis. NZDUSD is still a preferred short off big resistance. USDMXN put in a key reversal bar off price resistance and trend-line; looks headed lower in line with the broader trend.
Gold is ready to slip further, but may see a momentary pop today if the dollar sells off. Silver made a quirky flash-crash move during Asia trade last night to the tune of 10%+. Taking out the blip, it still looks headed towards the December low at 15.64 and worse.
Crude oil touched the 47 level earlier this week, a level we had our eye on as resistance. The resulting down-move we’ve seen indeed validated the figures importance. In the short-term, risk of a bounce is growing, but looking to any bounce which may unfold as a potential selling opportunity.
Global indices are teetering and could soon set in motion a full-on risk off event. The DAX is dangerously close to falling into the April gap, while the CAC 40 is already in ‘gap-fill’ mode. The FTSE 100 is below important resistance and looks headed to continue lower. The S&P 500 is only points away from breaking all near-term support; a move towards 2350 could soon develop if support fails.
For the full outlook, please see the video above…
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---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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