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Euro, USD, JPY Price Action Setups: Q3 Preview

Euro, USD, JPY Price Action Setups: Q3 Preview

James Stanley, Senior Strategist

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- In this webinar, we used price action to analyze recent market moves across the FX and Commodity space, while also looking into next quarter in the attempt of ascertaining which themes may be most interesting for traders to follow into Q3. We had previewed the more active major markets earlier in the day in the morning’s Market Talk article entitled, Dollar Drop to Eight Month Lows Fires Euro, Pound Higher.

- The first market we looked at was the S&P 500, which had just seen an early-day sell-off bring prices down towards support at 2400. The reason this is relevant is that it appears that the early morning spill in U.S. equities has created a bit of risk aversion in the bigger-picture trends of Yen weakness. This means that the ‘buy the dip’ mentality for U.S. stocks may be able to be directed towards this morning’s retracement in JPY. IG Client Sentiment for the S&P 500 CFD is at -3.01 as of this writing, and that is bullish given retail sentiment’s contrarian nature.

- We moved over to USD/JPY to look at a series of usable levels. We first started with shorter-term charts looking at near-term setups; but longer-term, a break of resistance at 114.50 can open the door to bullish continuation strategies. This is one of the more attractive long-USD candidates as we move into Q3.

- We then moved over to EUR/JPY, which has put in a similar retracement in a move that was arguably more overbought than what we saw in USD/JPY. EUR/JPY has the luxury of trading two very relevant themes at the moment, of Yen weakness along with Euro strength. We looked at re-entry protocol on a shorter-term basis in the effort of trading the ‘bigger picture’ bullish move.

- We then looked at the bullish run in EUR/USD, and this will likely remain as one of the more attractive USD-weakness venues as we move into Q3. IG Client Sentiment remains elevated at -4.39-to-1, which is bullish given retail sentiment’s contrarian nature.

- GBP/USD appears to have underwent a change of drivers after yesterday’s comments from Mark Carney helped propel the pair above the 1.3000 level. This can open the door to bullish continuation in the effort of trading USD-lower.

- USD/CAD has put in an out-sized break of numerous support levels, running into the psychologically important 1.3000-handle. The strategy here is to let support hold so that price can pop-up to set lower-high resistance, and we looked at a variety of levels that can be used for such a purpose.

- CAD/JPY – a possible mannerism of trading long CAD without having to take on the risk of selling USD whilst at 10-month lows.

- EUR/AUD – interesting top-side setup as prices appear to be working on a ‘higher-low’ on the hourly chart.

- U.S. Oil – the longer-term bear flag applies.

- Gold – bearish setups sought as price action continues to face resistance at lower-highs.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

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