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In this webinar, we discussed the positioning of the US dollar; continuing to focus on EURUSD and GBPUSD as targeted longs. The euro could use a little more pulling back/consolidation, but has support not far below in the mid-111s. If that area fails to hold, the trend-line from last month will become the next line of support. Overall, higher prices are expected. Cable is grinding its way ever so slightly higher within the confines of a channel. It’s still postured to make a move higher, but if the lower channel line is broken then a retracement into horizontal and trend-line support may be the next step. It would require a sharp break to fully undermine the work done the past couple of months. AUDUSD and NZDUSD are both making attempts to break bearish trend structures and could find some upward momentum.
EURAUD and EURNZD look headed lower, with trend-line and horizontal support levels coming under fire. USDMXN is treading on a long-term trend-line, which if broken should spark selling interest.
Gold and silver prices are pulling back from resistance as mentioned the likely scenario in yesterday’s webinar. As long as gold stays below the low 1260s the bias is skewed lower. Crude oil is reaching into the 51.60/52 resistance zone discussed yesterday as an area of selling interest.
Conviction with indices is low right now. For the DAX, it is really struggling to close above 12660 and will remain a focal point. The FTSE 100 has big support below but also has resistance not far above. The S&P 500 erased all losses from last week’s sell-off, but now facing resistance at record levels.
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See our quarterly forecasts for FX, equity indices, and commodities to see where our team of analysts see markets heading for the remainder of Q2.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
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