Strategy Video: Measuring Your Own Conviction to Select Trades
- Trade setups are always a probability - never a certainty - so finding the best terms is the key objective
- I look for a strong combination of technicals, fundamentals and market conditions to seek strong setups
- A strong combination offers what I call 'obnoxiously obvious' conditions, weaker 'subtle' setups are transitioning
Having trouble trading in the FX markets? This may be why.
There is a clear difference between a trade setup that you consider so obvious you cannot avoid it and one where the circumstances are so subtle as to make it dubious. Yet, where in this range are conditions strong enough to justify a trade? One of the best methods for whittling down strong trade opportunities in my book is finding those setups where you thorough analysis simply cannot come to a scenario where it will falter. That puts us in a mind frame where we recognize that there are no 'sure things'. There is always a probability that a trade will go against us, whether small or large; and that chance is often larger than we appreciate. After considering your own cutoff for actionable conditions, it is worth considering what would represent a checklist for a 'complete' opportunity. I look for trades that meet technical, fundamental and 'market condition' requirements. In this weekend Strategy Video, I walk through the process on setups from both the high water market (EURUSD, USDJPY) to those that are moving through the list to warrant action (CADJPY, GBPNZD and EURGBP).
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