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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout to Record Highs- What Now?

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Breakout to Record Highs- What Now?

2020-07-28 19:00:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices surged higher for an eighth consecutive week with the XAU/USD breakout marking fresh record highs. Gold is now trading in uncharted territory and while we have no historic price action at these levels, we do have some measured levels in focus just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly charts heading into tomorrow’s FOMC interest rate decision and the close of July trade. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that a six-week rally had taken XAU/USD into multi-year resistance and to be on the lookout for, “downside exhaustion ahead of 1747 IF price is indeed heading higher with a topside breach keeping the focus on objectives towards the record highs.” Three-days later, a breach higher fueled a rally of more than 13% with gold registering fresh record highs early in the week.

Initial weekly resistance stands at the 2.618% Fibonacci extension of the late-2015 advance at 1983 – note that a parallel of the 2018 trendline extending off the 2016 highs also converges on this region and further highlights its’ technical significance. A topside breach / close above this threshold is needed to keep the long-bias viable with such a scenario exposing the 200% measured move of the 2016-2019 consolidation breakout at 2032. Initial weekly support rests at the previous record highs at 1920 backed by the 2011 high-week close at 1881. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to 1795.

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Bottom line: The gold breakout is underway with the rally now approaching initial topside resistance objectives. From a trading standpoint, the immediate advance may be vulnerable heading into confluence resistance near 1983 a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops– keep an eye out for downside exhaustion ahead of 1881 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a breach exposing 2000 and beyond. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.23 (69.06% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are4.45% lower than yesterday and 18.33% higher from last week
  • Short positions are10.83% lower than yesterday and 2.65% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
Gold BEARISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 5% 5% 5%
Weekly 14% -2% 9%
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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