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New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook: Kiwi Falters Near Six-Month Highs

New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook: Kiwi Falters Near Six-Month Highs

2020-07-17 14:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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New Zealand Dollar Technical Price Outlook: NZD/USD Weekly Trade Levels

  • New Zealand Dollarupdated technical trade levels - Weekly Chart
  • NZD/USD rallies 20%+ off yearly lows- stalling at multi-year downtrend resistance
  • Kiwi advance vulnerable while below 6628 – critical support 6313

The New Zealand Dollar is poised to snap a three-week winning streak against the US Dollar with the Kiwi rally faltering at log-term down-trend resistance. The advance may be vulnerable here as momentum stalls and with the bulls at risk into the 66-handle. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the NZD/USD weekly price chart heading into next week. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Kiwitrade setup and more.

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New Zealand Dollar Price Chart – NZD/USD Weekly

New Zealand Dollar Price Chart - NZD/USD Weekly - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; NZD/USD on Tradingview

Notes: In my last New Zealand Dollar Weekly Price Outlook we noted that a breakout in NZD/USD had fueled a rally into confluence slope resistance heading into the close of June trade with initial support eyed, “at the 2019 low-week close at 6313.” The Kiwi pullback registered a low at 6380 in the following weeks before mounting a counteroffensive with price now challenging a key technical confluence at 6585-6628- a region defined by the June highs & the 100% extension the March rally and converges on long-term downtrend resistance (blue). Note that weekly RSI has held sub-60 since the start of the year and casts a bearish momentum profile while below this threshold.

Initial weekly support now raised to the March trendline / late-June lows at 6380 with bullish invalidation now raised to the 2019 low-week close at 6313- weakness beyond this threshold would risk a larger scale Kiwi correction. A breach / close above 6628 is needed to keep the long-bias viable with critical resistance eyed at the 2019 / 2020 yearly opens at 6705/33- look for a more significant reaction there IF reached.

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Bottom line: The New Zealand Dollar rally is testing confluence slope resistance here and leaves the broader advance vulnerable heading in 6628. From a trading standpoint, a good region to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – look for downside exhaustion ahead of 6380 IF price is heading higher with a close above 6628 needed to fuel the next leg up in price. I’ll publish an updated New Zealand Dollar Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term NZD/USD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment – NZD/USD Price Chart

New Zealand Dollar Trader Sentiment - NZD/USD Price Chart - Kiwi Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short NZD/USD - the ratio stands at -2.00 (33.38% of traders are long) – bullish reading
  • Long positions are 5.33% higher than yesterday and 2.47% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 12.57% lower than yesterday and 11.59% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests NZD/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current NZD/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short.
NZD/USD BEARISH
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Weekly 13% 1% 6%
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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