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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Capped by Key Trend Resistance

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Rally Capped by Key Trend Resistance

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices are down more than 0.30% this week with XAU/USD continuing to range just below a critical multi-year resistance slope we’ve been tracking for months now. The broader rally remains vulnerable while below this threshold an we’re looking for a break of this near-term range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD rally was, “once again testing critical long-term uptrend resistance… be on the lookout for possible exhaustion while below this week’s high IF price is going to correct first.” That high held into the open of June trade – one month later and that high remains in place with gold prices ranging just below amid ongoing divergence in momentum.

Initial weekly support steady at the March high-close at 1673 backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 1645- losses should be limited to this threshold IF price is indeed heading higher.A breach of the monthly opening-range highs would keep the focus on subsequent resistance objectives at the 2012 high at 1795 and the record high-week close at 1856.

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Bottom line: The broader gold price rally remains vulnerable while below this threshold – from a trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a break of the 1673-1733 range for guidance with the long-bias at risk while below the upper parallel. Ultimately, a larger decline may offer more favorable entries closer to uptrend support. Note that the length of time spent at these levels suggests that a topside breach would likely fuel an accelerated rally in price – use caution. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.25 (69.21% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are0.54% higher than yesterday and 9.39% lower from last week
  • Short positions are2.76% lower than yesterday and 4.20% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
Gold BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 1% 4% 1%
Weekly 1% 8% 2%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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