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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Surges into Resistance– GLD Levels

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Surges into Resistance– GLD Levels

Michael Boutros, Strategist

Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices surged more than 2% since the Sunday open with XAU/USD rallying into uptrend resistance early in the week- the immediate focus is on a reaction at this threshold with the long-bias vulnerable near-term while below. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that, “we’re on the lookout for signs of an exhaustion low to stage a larger recovery,” as price was responding to critical Fibonacci support confluence at 1447/52 (low registered at 1451). Gold rallied more than 15% off the lows with the advance testing key near-term resistance this week at the yearly high-close at 1673- the immediate long-bias may be vulnerable while below this threshold.

Initial weekly support rests at 1586 backed closely by the April open at 1574- look for pullbacks to be limited to this threshold IF price is indeed heading higher on this stretch. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to 1522/26. A topside breach / close above 1673 is needed to mark resumption with such a scenario eyeing subsequent resistance objectives at the yearly high at 1703 and the upper parallel / 78.6% retracement at 1733.

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Bottom line: The gold price rally is testing the first major resistance hurdle here at the yearly high-close. From a trading standpoint, the advance remains vulnerable while below this threshold – be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion here. Ultimately, a larger pullback may offer more favorable entries closer to uptrend support. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.89 (74.31% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are6.38% lower than yesterday and 6.47% higher from last week
  • Short positions are7.91% higher than yesterday and 0.65% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% -3% -1%
Weekly -7% 12% -4%
Learn how shifts in Gold retail positioning impact trend
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Previous Weekly Technical Charts

- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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