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Dollar vs Mexican Peso Price Outlook: USD/MXN Fails at Key Resistance

Dollar vs Mexican Peso Price Outlook: USD/MXN Fails at Key Resistance

2020-04-06 18:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist

Mexican Peso Technical Price Outlook: USD/MXN Trade Levels

  • Mexican Peso updated technical trade levels – Weekly & Daily Charts
  • USD/MXN breakout fails at record highs / key confluence resistance
  • Immediate long-bias at risk below uptrend resistance / 25.5466

The Mexican Peso has plummeted a staggering 39% vs the US Dollar with a multi-month breakout in USD/MXN taking price to fresh record highs. The rally faltered today on a brief test above a critical multi-year resistance threshold and leaves the immediate long-bias vulnerable while below today’s highs. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/MXN weekly price chart. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of the setupswe’re tracking this week.

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Mexican Peso Price Chart – USD/MXN Weekly

Mexican Peso Price Chart - USD/MXN Weekly - US Dollar vs Mexican Peso Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/MXN on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Mexican Peso Price Outlook we noted that USD/MXN was approaching uptrend resistance of multi-year ascending pitchfork formation with a topside breach exposing , “23.3500 backed by the 1.618% extension at 24.2050.” Price registered a high just above confluence resistance at the upper parallel / March high / 200% ext at 25.4474/5466 into the open of the week before reversing with weekly RSI marking bearish divergence into these highs (albeit week signal in overbought territory). The reversal leaves the broader long-bias risk near-term while below this critical threshold.

Monthly open support rests at 23.6988 backed by the 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 23.0065- a level of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached. Broader bullish invalidation now raised to the median-line / 2018 high at 22.0376. A topside breach / close is needed to keep the long-bias viable with such a scenario exposing subsequent resistance objective sat the 2.618% ext at 27.7171.

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Bottom line: The peso price sell-off has responded to a key technical confluence and the immediate USD/MXN rally may be vulnerable while below up-slope resistance. From a trading standpoint, look for sided-ways to lower price action over the next few days- ultimately a larger setback may offer more favorable long-entries closer to uptrend support. I’ll publish an updated Mexican Peso Price Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/MXN technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

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Key US / Mexico Data Releases

US / Mexico Key Data Releases - USD/MXN Event Risk - Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Previous Weekly Technical Charts

--- Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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