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Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Finds Support- Coronavirus Timeline Grows

Gold Price Outlook: XAU/USD Finds Support- Coronavirus Timeline Grows

2020-03-17 16:30:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
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Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels

Gold prices have responded to a key technical support confluence as the Coronavirus outlook fuel fears of a prolonged outbreak. Is XAU/USD bottoming? We’re on the lookout for possible downside exhaustion as price tests a critical pivot zone. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.

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Gold Price Chart - XAU/USD Weekly

Gold Price Chart - XAU.USD Weekly - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview

Notes: In my last Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the XAU/USD breakout had, “stalled at confluence uptrend resistance and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance is vulnerable while below this threshold.” A massive outside weekly-reversal candle fueled a steep sell-off (14.8%) that carried over into the weekly open with price registering a low at 1451 early in the session. We’re looking for a reaction down here.

Key support rests at the 100% extension / 38.2% retracement of the 2015 advance at 1447/52 with broader bullish invalidation set to the 2016 high-day close at 1366. Initial resistance now back at 1522/26- a weekly close above this threshold is needed to put the long-bias back in focus with subsequent resistance objectives eyed back at 1586 and the yearly high close at 1673- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.

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Bottom line: Gold has responded to a major support pivot leaves the near-term short-bias at risk while above 1447/52- the focus is on the weekly with respect to the 1522/26 zone. From a trading standpoint, we’re on the lookout for signs of an exhaustion low to stage a larger recovery. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart

Gold Trader Sentiment - XAU/USD Price Chart - GLD Trade Outlook - GC Technical Forecast
  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +2.21 (68.86% of traders are long) – bearishreading
  • Long positions are7.88% lower than yesterday and 11.09% lower from last week
  • Short positions are17.10% higher than yesterday and 20.35% lower from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed Gold trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.
Gold BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 6% 10% 7%
Weekly -5% 1% -4%
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- Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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