News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here:
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here:
  • #Gold prices succumbed to selling pressure as the US Dollar soared this past week What is #XAUUSD facing these next few days and can these fundamental forces extend its selloff? Check out my outlook here -
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here:
  • The price of #oil may continue to trade in a narrow range as the rebound from the September low ($36.13) appears to have stalled ahead of the month high ($43.43). Get your #commodities update from @DavidJSong here:
  • The Australian Dollar may extend its slide lower despite the planned easing of Covid-19 restrictions, as the market continues to price in an RBA rate cut on October 6. Get your #currencies update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • The Indian Rupee may be at risk to the US Dollar as USD/INR attempts to refocus to the upside. This is as the Nifty 50, India’s benchmark stock index, could fall further. Get your USD/INR market update here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
US Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast: Can USD Bulls Post a Breakout?

US Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast: Can USD Bulls Post a Breakout?

2019-04-06 16:00:00
James Stanley, Strategist


- US Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

- US Dollar Weekly Price Outlook: DXY Rally at Risk into Yearly Highs.

- US Dollar Holds Ground as NFP Prints 196k for March US Jobs Report.

Retail Bets Against a USD Breakout via EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Retail traders appear to be looking for USD-weakness to show in Q2, as IG Client Sentiment is currently showing heavy long positioning in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Retail sentiment is traditionally a contrarian type of indicator, and this can keep focus on the bullish backdrop around the US Dollar as the quarter’s first major rate decision is on the economic calendar for next week with Thursday’s ECB meeting.

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently positioned around the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

This was the driver last month that really seemed to prod USD-bulls, creating a swell of strength until the US Dollar tested the yearly-high at 97.71. But, that resistance came into play just hours after the ECB announcement; and the following morning brought an abysmal NFP report that saw that theme of USD-strength further reverse – and that remained into the FOMC rate decision on March 20th. The Fed went dovish by cutting forecasts for rate hikes in 2019, and that brought a quick continuation of weakness in the Greenback as prices pushed down to trend-line support. But – buyers were able to hold the lows, and in the two-and-a-half weeks since, have largely remained in-control of USD price action.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart


Chart prepared by James Stanley

As discussed in the Q2 technical forecast on the US Dollar, the currency has built into an ascending triangle formation, and this will often be approached in a bullish manner. The expectation is that the motivation that’s continued to bring in bulls at higher-lows, similar to what was seen in the aftermath of the March FOMC rate decision, will continue until resistance is eventually taken-out. This is one of the primary reasons for the bullish forecast on the US Dollar for Q2, and this potential remains until that formation is invalidated, which would take place upon a drop below March support around 95.74.

Access the DailyFX Q2 Forecasts for USD, Euro, GBP and More

US Dollar Daily Price Chart


Chart prepared by James Stanley

US Dollar Forecast for Next Week: Neutral

While longer-term bullish potential remains around the US Dollar, this may not be the most opportune time to try to anticipate that breakout. At this point, given the rigidity of that resistance, USD is likely going to need some type of catalyst to create enough motivation for buyers to finally break through to the other side. Perhaps ECB is that catalyst; but given that the bank already triggered a fresh round of stimulus while cutting both growth and inflation forecasts, there may not be much more that they can do to create a bearish push in EURUSD, which could then create bullish breakout potential in the US Dollar. Or maybe it ends up being fears of a No-Deal Brexit that creates that swell of strength in the US Dollar as Cable traders punish GBP for another increase in uncertainty.

Whatever the root cause: Bullish breakouts above 97.71 in DXY can re-open the door for topside strategies in the US currency. But, until then, traders should remain on guard.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart


Chart prepared by James Stanley

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q1 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Australian Dollar Forecast - AUD/USD Outlook Mixed, AUD/NZD and GBP/AUD Flirt with New Trends

Oil Forecast - Crude Oil Prices Hit Fresh 5-Month High with Eyes Glued on Dow and Risk

British Pound Forecast - GBPUSD & EURGBP Trends Creaking

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.