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US Dollar Resistance Test, USD/CAD Tightening Range: Webinar

US Dollar Resistance Test, USD/CAD Tightening Range: Webinar

2020-01-21 20:00:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
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FX Price Action Webinar

The low volatility backdrop continues through the FX market as ranges are tightening further and a number of congestion setups remain across major pairs. One of the more evident illustrations of this is in USD/CAD, which has been mired in a 65 pip range over the past week, and this takes place after a notable support break ahead of year-end. The Canadian Dollar has been quiet of recent, and the USD the same; but tomorrow brings Canadian CPI followed by a Bank of Canada rate decision, setting the stage for a possible break. In the webinar, support and resistance was in focus with the resistance side of the pair showing potential at 1.3102, 1.3132-1.3150 and then the zone around the 1.3200-handle. Underneath current price action, current support at 1.3025 shows just ahead of the 1.3000 big figure; after which the 1.2950 January swing low shows.

USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart

usdcad four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

US Dollar Runs into Resistance, Claws Back Late Q4 Loss

The last week of 2019 saw the US Dollar fall from a key zone of resistance down to a fresh five-month-low; eventually finding support at a Fibonacci level at 96.47. Since then, however, and for much of 2020, buyers have been clawing back that move and yesterday saw a fresh three-week-high as price action re-tested the resistance zone at 97.70, which has been in-play for much of the past year-and-change.

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US Dollar Daily Price Chart

us dollar daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

Euro Remains in Range, EUR/USD Reverts to Support

EUR/USD price action has tipped right back to the 1.1082 Fibonacci level; keeping price action within the recent range. Thursday brings an ECB rate decision and, as looked at in this week’s Euro forecast, trend traders may find more to work with against the Japanese Yen in the EUR/JPY pair.

EUR/USD BULLISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -14% -5% -12%
Weekly -5% 20% 0%
Retail Trader Sentiment in EURUSD
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EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart

eurjpy daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURJPY on Tradingview

GBP/USD: Cable May Soon Clear Congestion

The range-backdrop remains across most major pairs, GBP/USD included. But, there may soon be some element of resolution in Cable as bulls have staged a topside push after last week’s support test. Key for this theme would be a higher-high above last week’s inflection at Fibonacci resistance, coming in around the 1.3117 level.

GBP/USD MIXED
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -18% -5% -15%
Weekly 11% -27% -4%
Retail Trader Sentiment in GBPUSD
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GBP/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

gbpusd price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview

AUD/USD Turns from Resistance at Prior Support

On the long side of the US Dollar, AUD/USD may remain attractive. I had looked at this one last week as prices were pushing back towards a key level at .6930. This was a prior resistance level-turned-support; and last week saw this level come back into play to mark the swing-high. For traders looking at long-USD strategies, AUD/USD can be an attractive candidate for such themes.

AUD/USD BEARISH
Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -4% -28% -10%
Weekly 6% -19% -1%
Retail Trader Sentiment in AUDUSD
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AUD/USD Daily Price Chart

audusd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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