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USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Finds Resistance Inside of Big Level

USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Finds Resistance Inside of Big Level

2020-01-14 20:00:00
James Stanley, Strategist
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US Dollar Talking Points:

  • The US Dollar is holding resistance inside of the ‘key’ 97.70 level on DXY.
  • USD has put in a short-term range after last week’s bullish move; keeping the door open for near-term trend strategies, and pairs like AUD/USD may hold some allure for long-USD scenarios.
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The US Dollar has extended its 2020 bullish run following last week’s ascending triangle break. As looked at in last Tuesday’s webinar, the late-2019 sell-off saw the USD push down to fresh five month lows. But early 2020 trade did not see that move continue as a upward-sloping trendline was matched with horizontal resistance taken from an area of prior support.

A bullish breakout followed, and prices continued to track up to the 97.50 area on the chart; at which point a short-term range began to develop between 97.33-97.50.

US Dollar Hourly Price Chart

us dollar hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

On a longer-term basis, bearish appeal could remain around the prospect of prices holding at lower-high resistance. This is inside of the 97.70 level that had functioned as the yearly high in 2018 and again in the first-half of 2019. Support could be followed from the resistance zone looked at in last week’s ascending triangle, taken from around 97.04-97.20.

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US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

us dollar usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

EUR/USD Bounce From Fibo Support to Fibo Resistance

I had looked at this one last week on both Tuesday and Thursday, focusing in on levels produced by a Fibonacci retracement drawn from last June’s swing high down to last October’s swing-low. The 38.2% retracement of that major move came into play last week to help set support around the familiar 1.1082 level. The 50% marker came into play after last week’s NFP report, helping to hold the highs on the pair. This keeps EUR/USD in a longer-term pattern of congestion and traders would likely want to adopt one of two approaches: Either trading for shorter-term swings with more near-term analysis or, alternatively, waiting for price action to break out in order to work with a more decisive trending backdrop.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

GBP/USD: Some Gap Left to Fill After Bears Thwarted

GBP/USD attempted to put in a breakdown below wedge support and the 1.3000 psychological level earlier this morning. That move has been rebuffed, however, and buyers are making a come back as Cable trades back-above the psychological level. There’s some remaining unfilled gap that runs from the approximate 1.3045-1.3055, and this could be an item of interest. A push up to, and a hold of resistance in this area, can re-open the door for bearish strategies. A push above, however, can put the focus back on to the long side of the pair.

GBP/USD MIXED
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -15% 8% -4%
Weekly -6% -17% -12%
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GBP/USD Hourly Price Chart

gbpusd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview

Of key consideration, if there is to be a bullish resolution to the longer-term bull pennant formation, buyers have their work cut out for them, and this could offer ample opportunity for trend strategies to re-focus on the long side of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

gbpusd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

USD/CAD: Short-Term Bullish Potential, Longer-Term Swing Interest

I had looked into this one earlier this morning, as well as last Friday on the heels of the NFP/Canadian jobs releases. Last week saw prices soften from a key area of resistance around 1.3100. But sellers couldn’t hold the move for long, as swing support showed up at 1.3025. Since then, buyers have held the line of higher-lows, leading to the build of a short-term ascending triangle formation. This keeps the door open for near-term bullish breakouts, which could bring into play more interesting levels of resistance potential; such as the zone from 1.3132-1.3150 or, perhaps even the zone running from 1.3181-1.3205.

USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart

usdcad usd/cad four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

AUD/USD Resistance Check

I had looked at this one last Thursday ahead of NFP. At the time, AUD/USD had built in a range around near-term support. Of interest was a prior support swing at a key area on the chart, around .6930. That level has since come into play and is currently showing as short-term resistance, keeping the pair as a potential venue to work with USD-strength scenarios.

AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

audusd aud/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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