US Dollar Talking Points:
- The US Dollar is holding resistance inside of the ‘key’ 97.70 level on DXY.
- USD has put in a short-term range after last week’s bullish move; keeping the door open for near-term trend strategies, and pairs like AUD/USD may hold some allure for long-USD scenarios.
The US Dollar has extended its 2020 bullish run following last week’s ascending triangle break. As looked at in last Tuesday’s webinar, the late-2019 sell-off saw the USD push down to fresh five month lows. But early 2020 trade did not see that move continue as a upward-sloping trendline was matched with horizontal resistance taken from an area of prior support.
A bullish breakout followed, and prices continued to track up to the 97.50 area on the chart; at which point a short-term range began to develop between 97.33-97.50.
US Dollar Hourly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview
On a longer-term basis, bearish appeal could remain around the prospect of prices holding at lower-high resistance. This is inside of the 97.70 level that had functioned as the yearly high in 2018 and again in the first-half of 2019. Support could be followed from the resistance zone looked at in last week’s ascending triangle, taken from around 97.04-97.20.
US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview
EUR/USD Bounce From Fibo Support to Fibo Resistance
I had looked at this one last week on both Tuesday and Thursday, focusing in on levels produced by a Fibonacci retracement drawn from last June’s swing high down to last October’s swing-low. The 38.2% retracement of that major move came into play last week to help set support around the familiar 1.1082 level. The 50% marker came into play after last week’s NFP report, helping to hold the highs on the pair. This keeps EUR/USD in a longer-term pattern of congestion and traders would likely want to adopt one of two approaches: Either trading for shorter-term swings with more near-term analysis or, alternatively, waiting for price action to break out in order to work with a more decisive trending backdrop.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview
GBP/USD: Some Gap Left to Fill After Bears Thwarted
GBP/USD attempted to put in a breakdown below wedge support and the 1.3000 psychological level earlier this morning. That move has been rebuffed, however, and buyers are making a come back as Cable trades back-above the psychological level. There’s some remaining unfilled gap that runs from the approximate 1.3045-1.3055, and this could be an item of interest. A push up to, and a hold of resistance in this area, can re-open the door for bearish strategies. A push above, however, can put the focus back on to the long side of the pair.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | 5% | -2% | 1% |
| Weekly | -15% | 21% | 1% |
GBP/USD Hourly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview
Of key consideration, if there is to be a bullish resolution to the longer-term bull pennant formation, buyers have their work cut out for them, and this could offer ample opportunity for trend strategies to re-focus on the long side of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview
USD/CAD: Short-Term Bullish Potential, Longer-Term Swing Interest
I had looked into this one earlier this morning, as well as last Friday on the heels of the NFP/Canadian jobs releases. Last week saw prices soften from a key area of resistance around 1.3100. But sellers couldn’t hold the move for long, as swing support showed up at 1.3025. Since then, buyers have held the line of higher-lows, leading to the build of a short-term ascending triangle formation. This keeps the door open for near-term bullish breakouts, which could bring into play more interesting levels of resistance potential; such as the zone from 1.3132-1.3150 or, perhaps even the zone running from 1.3181-1.3205.
USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview
AUD/USD Resistance Check
I had looked at this one last Thursday ahead of NFP. At the time, AUD/USD had built in a range around near-term support. Of interest was a prior support swing at a key area on the chart, around .6930. That level has since come into play and is currently showing as short-term resistance, keeping the pair as a potential venue to work with USD-strength scenarios.
AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview
--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com
Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX
