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USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Finds Resistance Inside of Big Level

USD Price Outlook: US Dollar Finds Resistance Inside of Big Level

2020-01-14 20:00:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist

US Dollar Talking Points:

  • The US Dollar is holding resistance inside of the ‘key’ 97.70 level on DXY.
  • USD has put in a short-term range after last week’s bullish move; keeping the door open for near-term trend strategies, and pairs like AUD/USD may hold some allure for long-USD scenarios.
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The US Dollar has extended its 2020 bullish run following last week’s ascending triangle break. As looked at in last Tuesday’s webinar, the late-2019 sell-off saw the USD push down to fresh five month lows. But early 2020 trade did not see that move continue as a upward-sloping trendline was matched with horizontal resistance taken from an area of prior support.

A bullish breakout followed, and prices continued to track up to the 97.50 area on the chart; at which point a short-term range began to develop between 97.33-97.50.

US Dollar Hourly Price Chart

us dollar hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

On a longer-term basis, bearish appeal could remain around the prospect of prices holding at lower-high resistance. This is inside of the 97.70 level that had functioned as the yearly high in 2018 and again in the first-half of 2019. Support could be followed from the resistance zone looked at in last week’s ascending triangle, taken from around 97.04-97.20.

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US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

us dollar usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

EUR/USD Bounce From Fibo Support to Fibo Resistance

I had looked at this one last week on both Tuesday and Thursday, focusing in on levels produced by a Fibonacci retracement drawn from last June’s swing high down to last October’s swing-low. The 38.2% retracement of that major move came into play last week to help set support around the familiar 1.1082 level. The 50% marker came into play after last week’s NFP report, helping to hold the highs on the pair. This keeps EUR/USD in a longer-term pattern of congestion and traders would likely want to adopt one of two approaches: Either trading for shorter-term swings with more near-term analysis or, alternatively, waiting for price action to break out in order to work with a more decisive trending backdrop.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

eurusd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

GBP/USD: Some Gap Left to Fill After Bears Thwarted

GBP/USD attempted to put in a breakdown below wedge support and the 1.3000 psychological level earlier this morning. That move has been rebuffed, however, and buyers are making a come back as Cable trades back-above the psychological level. There’s some remaining unfilled gap that runs from the approximate 1.3045-1.3055, and this could be an item of interest. A push up to, and a hold of resistance in this area, can re-open the door for bearish strategies. A push above, however, can put the focus back on to the long side of the pair.

Data provided by
of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -5% -7% -6%
Weekly 6% -1% 3%
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GBP/USD Hourly Price Chart

gbpusd hourly price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; GBPUSD on Tradingview

Of key consideration, if there is to be a bullish resolution to the longer-term bull pennant formation, buyers have their work cut out for them, and this could offer ample opportunity for trend strategies to re-focus on the long side of GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Daily Price Chart

gbpusd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; EURUSD on Tradingview

USD/CAD: Short-Term Bullish Potential, Longer-Term Swing Interest

I had looked into this one earlier this morning, as well as last Friday on the heels of the NFP/Canadian jobs releases. Last week saw prices soften from a key area of resistance around 1.3100. But sellers couldn’t hold the move for long, as swing support showed up at 1.3025. Since then, buyers have held the line of higher-lows, leading to the build of a short-term ascending triangle formation. This keeps the door open for near-term bullish breakouts, which could bring into play more interesting levels of resistance potential; such as the zone from 1.3132-1.3150 or, perhaps even the zone running from 1.3181-1.3205.

USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart

usdcad usd/cad four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; USDCAD on Tradingview

AUD/USD Resistance Check

I had looked at this one last Thursday ahead of NFP. At the time, AUD/USD had built in a range around near-term support. Of interest was a prior support swing at a key area on the chart, around .6930. That level has since come into play and is currently showing as short-term resistance, keeping the pair as a potential venue to work with USD-strength scenarios.

AUD/USD Four-Hour Price Chart

audusd aud/usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; AUDUSD on Tradingview

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

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