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Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, Gold, Crude Oil, US Dollar, Euro, Ukraine, Fed, RBNZ

Markets Week Ahead: Nasdaq 100, Gold, Crude Oil, US Dollar, Euro, Ukraine, Fed, RBNZ

Daniel Dubrovsky, Contributing Senior Strategist


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Market sentiment deteriorated this past week around the globe as geopolitical tensions around Ukraine mixed with the road ahead for tightening monetary policy. On Wall Street, futures tracking the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500 and Dow Jones declined 1.5%, 1.4% and 1.7% respectively. In Europe and Asia, the DAX 40 and Nikkei 225 sank 2.5% and 2.0% respectively.

Uncertainty is a plague for financial markets, and tensions between Russia and the west are stirring volatility. The White House continues to believe that Russia is positioned to attack Ukraine while leaving the door open to diplomacy. President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, said that the country ‘does not want war’ in Europe.

Gold prices found a strong footing amidst this uncertainty, with the yellow metal closing at its highest since June. Crude oil prices, while still being elevated, stabilized this week . Progress on the Iran Nuclear Deal was a likely cause. The anti-risk US Dollar struggled to build momentum amid less hawkish Fed rate hike bets for the year ahead.

A meeting between the US and Russia will be taking place this week and the Euro could be vulnerable to elevated volatility. In addition to the proximity of the European Union, the latter’s dependence on gas from Russia could result in supply disruption amid escalating conflict. That would be a pickle for the European Central Bank, which is slowly opening the door to tightening.

The New Zealand Dollar will be closely eying the RBNZ monetary policy announcement, where the central bank is expected to raise rates and live up to what is anticipated to be an aggressive tightening cycle. All eyes will also be on the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation for January, where another strong print risks adding to recent market volatility. What else is in store for markets?

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Fundamental Forecasts:

Straits Times Index Rallies on Robust Bank Earnings, Recovery Hopes

Singapore’s Straits Times Index (STI) outperformed regional peers recently on hopes that an economic recovery is underway. Strong bank earnings underscored improving business conditions, adding fuel to the index’s rally.

Australian Dollar Outlook: External Factors Dominate AUD/USD, Will it Break Free?

The Australian Dollar faces a choppy outlook with global concerns growing over a conflict in the Ukraine. Where to for AUD/USD?

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Sinking Into Support

The background of higher global rates and growing geopolitical tensions has forced Bitcoin down into an important zone of support.

Evacuations Begin as Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate into the Weekend

Russian-backed separatists announce plans to evacuate eastern Ukraine in favor of Russia. The US warned: Russia is looking for a pretext to invade. Could this be it?

British Pound (GBP) Latest: Cable Awaits BoE MPC Speeches Next Week

The pound has been rallying on the back of BoE rate hike expectations with a weaker USD supporting cable upside. Attention now shifts to BoE speeches next week.

Gold Price Forecast: Gold to Outperform on Rising US Inflation

Data prints coming out of the US may keep the price of gold afloat as the Fed’s preferred gauge for inflation is expected to increase for the fifth consecutive month.

Euro Forecast: Russia-Ukraine Tensions Create Downside Risks for EUR/USD

EUR/USD could show a bearish or neutral bias in the coming days amid rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and increased risk aversion in financial markets.

New Zealand Dollar Forecast: NZD/USD Sits Between RBNZ Hikes and Ukraine Tensions

The New Zealand Dollar sits in a precarious situation as it finds itself between what is expected to be an aggressive RBNZ tightening cycle and geopolitical tensions around Ukraine.

Technical Forecasts:

S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Technical Forecast: The Big Plunge

Stocks plunged for a second consecutive week with indices now threatening a more significant correction. Levels that matter on the SPX500, Nasdaq & Dow technical charts.

Gold Price Technical Forecast: The War Bid Takes Over XAU/USD

Gold has jumped up to a fresh eight-month-high this week and it may not be done yet, as an end to the Russia-Ukraine threat doesn’t yet appear near.

Australian Dollar Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Resilience Drives Price Action

The Australian Dollar has remained resilient against the greenback as AUD/USD threatens key technical levels. Russia-Ukraine tensions weigh on sentiment.

US Dollar Technical Forecast: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD

The US Dollar put in a doji this week, but a morning star building on the daily that completed on Friday highlights the potential for strength.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.