Weekly Fundamental Forecast: Recession and Brexit Worries face QE and Trade Talk Hopes
Risk trends still have the fundamental winds to their back, and speculatively-dependent assets such as equities and commodities have benefited. Yet, the balance of power and themes into the second quarter looks far less convincing than how markets have performed.
Trying to untangle trade wars and unequipped central banks ramping up stimulus doesn’t balance against fear of recession and events like Brexit.
Crude oil prices remain supported by supply cuts and trade deal hopes even as the economic data have proven disappointing. That support could wane a little this week
The US Dollar may rise, spurned on by haven-seeking capital flows as risk appetite finally succumbs to a broad assortment of potent headwinds.
Gold prices could be weighed down if the US Dollar rises in risk aversion on soft economic data. Other hazards for the precious metal include a more dovish RBA and Brexit updates.
The first week of a new month and a new quarter typically brings the usual smattering of important economic data releases and events, and the first week of April and Q2’19 is no different.
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See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.
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