News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/Q3Yfe6TMLw
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/6inC94w5K4
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/Cv06XcvldF https://t.co/I12g2YPkdE
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/KsPiWBysiR
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/sjh91mjtXs https://t.co/dGT067zKnH
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/VLZQhrQTAf
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/j5xDAG6LLb
Crude Oil May Be Overextended, But Watch Out For Trade Headlines

Crude Oil May Be Overextended, But Watch Out For Trade Headlines

David Cottle, Analyst
Crude Oil Chart

Fundamental Crude Oil Forecast: Neutral

  • Crude oil’s uptrend looks solid enough
  • However, it also looks overbought at a time of deep fundamental uncertainty
  • A consolidation could be coming, assuming no left-field trade news

Looking for a technical perspective on Crude Oil? Check out the Weekly Crude Oil Technical Forecast.

Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

Crude oil prices head into a new week still very much within the uptrend on their daily chart which has endured since the lows of last December.

To be sure clear uncertainties still glower over likely global economic growth. Data from all key regions has disappointed of late, with last week’s softer US growth numbers only adding to the sense of deepening malaise.

Of course, a feeble global economy will lead inevitably to reduced oil demand, so it’s reasonable to assume that the current up-move remains rooted in expectations of reduced supply. After all, oil prices are now about 30% above their 2018 lows supported by output cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major players, along with US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran.

US President Donald Trump last week called on OPEC to ‘increase the flow of oil.’ He seems to have done so in less bellicose terms than those in which he has previously couched similar entreaties, this time noting fragile global markets.

This week will bring news of Chinese economic performance in the form of official and private Purchasing Managers Index surveys, with the country’s manufacturing sectors expected to keep contracting, as it has for three straight months already. The markets will also get a look at Japanese business confidence in the bellwether Tankan survey due for release on Monday. Official US labor statistics will round out the week’s numbers.

Given recent data disappointments there would seem to potential risks for oil prices in all this data. Moreover, the crude oil spot market is also edging up toward overbought levels judging by momentum indicators such as its Relative Strength Index. It could be due a rest.

The main risk to current, bearish fundamentals is potential good news on the trade front from talks between China and the US. News of any settlement will probably see all growth-linked markets get a substantial fillip, probably including that for crude. There’ve been encouraging noises from both parties on this score of late, but the coming week may be too early for definitive progress.

With that in mind it’s a neutral call.

US Crude Oil

Resources for Traders

Whether you’re new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There’s our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There’s also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they’re all free.

--- Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES