News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/wDVd2QvcjO
  • The longer-term EUR/USD outlook will hinge on Thursday’s ECB guidance; any hint of a further easing of Eurozone monetary policy would weaken it, but that is far from guaranteed. Get your #currencies update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/RmHCfIwdqp https://t.co/hvETa6mtft
  • Traders tend to overcomplicate things when they’re starting out in the forex market. This fact is unfortunate but undeniably true. Simplify your trading strategy with these four indicators here:https://t.co/A4dqGMPylo https://t.co/M8WTvZgx2K
  • The Australian Dollar was under selling pressure this past week, but it held its ground. Bearish patterns brew in AUD/USD and AUD/JPY. Will EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD try to break higher again? Get your #currencies update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/04kzJSqgNG https://t.co/ulPk1UneMM
  • Stocks are set to endure a string of data releases with market-moving potential in the week ahead in the form of tech earnings, European GDP and more, even as the US Presidential election clamors for the spotlight. #equities update from @PeterHanksFX here https://t.co/R6tpEvfXJb https://t.co/7koHTyh2AK
  • As we round our way towards a new week, Cable is within the confines of a bullish structure with beginnings back in September. Get your #currencies update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/NIbRTVmjqq https://t.co/zYma4Iq4dP
  • Myth or fact? One thing is for sure, there are a lot of misconceptions about trading. Knowing the difference between common trading myths and the reality is essential to long-term success. Find out about these 'myths' here: https://t.co/UGhbX6kn3H https://t.co/NE2RB1NT55
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/MVwUUltt6R
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDn8ejP https://t.co/XnQzHlFsAv
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/FuLPdCLpKs
Gold Price Outlook Bearish as USD May Rise on Soft Econ Data, RBA

Gold Price Outlook Bearish as USD May Rise on Soft Econ Data, RBA

2019-03-30 16:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:
Gold

Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: Bearish

  • Gold prices’ inverse link to the US Dollar has strengthened recently
  • US econ. data may underperform, fueling risk aversion as gold sinks
  • Hazards for the yellow metal also include more dovish RBA, Brexit

Looking for a technical perspective on the Gold? Check out the Weekly Gold Technical Forecast.

Trade all the major global economic data live and interactive at the DailyFX Webinars. We’d love to have you along.

Gold prices spent most of last week declining, with the commodity dropping almost 1.5 percent in its worst single-day performance since the beginning of March on Thursday. The anti-fiat precious metal, thanks to a lack of interest-bearing qualities, inversely tracked the US Dollar. At one point, it even weakened alongside a pullback in the S&P 500. This undermined its often-associated trait as a safe haven.

Lately, XAU/USD has been tending to be more sensitive to movements in the Greenback. Looking at the chart below, the yellow metal fell despite a deterioration in front-end government bond yields from developed countries such as the United States and Germany. Simultaneously, its correlation with DXY has been becoming increasingly inverse since the end of February.

Gold Versus Developed Nation 2-Year Government Bond Yields and US Dollar

Gold VS DXY & 2Yr Goveremnt Bond

Chart Created in TradingView

Gold Week Ahead

With that in mind, gold prices will be closely watching what could impact the US Dollar in the week ahead, and there is much to anticipate. Ahead, data such as US retail sales, durable goods and the latest non-farm payrolls report are on the docket. The Federal Reserve is currently in wait-and-see mode as it cooled expectations of two hikes for this year. Can those odds be revived?

The Citi surprise index seems to suggest otherwise. Data has been tending to increasingly underperform in the world’s-largest economy, hinting that more downside surprises could be in store ahead. This was largely the case this past week. It should be noted that Fed funds futures are pricing in about a 70% chance of a hike for this year. Yet, the US Dollar has held up remarkably well all things considered.

If US equities suffer on fears of economic growth slowing on dismal domestic economic statistics, the Greenback may receive a lift. Aggressive risk aversion often diverts investors into the world’s most liquid asset. Another source of uncertainty could come from the RBA given that the RBNZ recently announced that it favors a cut as its next move. If the former follows suit, USD could rally, pressuring the metal.

Gold may move inversely to USD, but the direction of government bond yields should still be taken into account. Let’s not forget that gold’s rise since the latter half of 2018 tracked a flattening in a closely-watched section of the US yield curve before it eventually inverted on March 22. Brexit also remains a wildcard for sentiment. Given these numerous risks, gold bulls ought to proceed with caution.

Gold Trading Resources:

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Crude Oil Forecast – Crude Oil May be Overextended, But Watch Out For Trade Headlines

British Pound Forecast – GBP/USD Rate Threatens Bull Trend Ahead of Brexit Deadline

US Dollar Forecast – US Dollar May Rise as Sentiment Succumbs to Potent Headwinds

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES