We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • $USD bulls making a push ahead of a big morning. CPI at 830 et, Powell on Capitol Hill at 11. DXY holding resistance at 50% of Oct sell-off, rising trendline as buyers getting more motivated. Backdrop for breakouts https://t.co/9JvNuj9GUh
  • RT @barnejek: When HSBC's Steve Major talks, fixed income people listen. His latest is out and he is bullish fixed income targeting 1.5 in…
  • What are the truths and myths of #forex trading? Find out from @DailyFX analysts here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr https://t.co/hW65N9phAQ
  • Canadian Dollar Forecast: USD/CAD Price Running into Renewed Resistance. #usdcad #loonie https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2019/11/13/Canadian-Dollar-Forecast-USDCAD-Price-Running-into-Renewed-Resistance.html
  • $NOK FX flows show foreign banks buying for the first time in over a month https://t.co/NlMkz8lM29
  • RT @onlyyoontv: #China Foreign Ministry slams @SenatorRisch for openly supporting “extremists and violent activists” in #HongKong. Says Bei…
  • RT @markets: #5things -Powell testimony -Public impeachment inquiry -Another oil demand warning -Markets slip -Inflation data due https://t…
  • RT @lisaabramowicz1: U.S. investment-grade bonds are still very much in a sweet spot. Spreads on the debt have fallen to the lowest since M…
  • 🇺🇸 USD MBA Mortgage Applications (NOV 8), Actual: 9.6% Expected: N/A Previous: -0.1% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-11-13
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.56%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 83.09%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rivYzCbCp2
Gold Price Outlook Bearish in Long Run, Eying Support in Near Term

Gold Price Outlook Bearish in Long Run, Eying Support in Near Term

2019-03-30 16:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:

Gold Technical Forecast: Bearish

  • Gold prices fell, concluding a second month of losses
  • Path of least resistance for gold in long-run may be lower
  • Interim signals not quite as clear, consolidation may ensue

Find out what the #1 mistake that traders make is and how you can fix it!

Anti-fiat gold prices experienced the worst week since the beginning of March, weighed down by a stronger US Dollar. The precious metal also concluded its most disappointing month since August as we head into the first day of April. Looking at the monthly chart below, March left behind the completion of an evening star bearish reversal pattern.

In the beginning of 2016, the inverse of this candlestick formation, a morning star, preceded a climb of about 20%. Keep in mind that past performance is not indicative of future results, and candlestick patterns ideally require confirmation. As such, if April turns out to be another sour month for gold, we may see a dominant downtrend ensue in the medium-to-long-term scenario. This would fit the forecast in last week’s fundamental outlook.

Looking for a fundamental perspective on gold? Check out the Weekly Gold Fundamental Forecast.

Gold Monthly Chart

xau

In the interim, the technical picture is not quite as clear. Zooming in on the weekly chart, it is tempting to call the recent candles a falling three method pattern (red box on the chart below). This is typically a bearish formation, but it needs to form in the middle of a downtrend. In this situation, it has formed at a potential top, invalidating the setup.

Gold Weekly Chart

Xau

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the daily chart. Last week, gold prices fell under a near-term rising support line from March 7th. This is after failing to breach falling resistance from gold’s top in February, which occurred after a formation of an evening star. While the drop in the last week of March was impressive, it stopped short of breaching the range of support between 1276 and 1285.

If this area holds in the week ahead, we may be due for another retest of the falling trend line from February. This opens the door to consolidation between horizontal support and descending resistance. I have highlighted this as the green triangle on the chart below. Clearing the floor opens the door to testing the next area of support at 1260, a psychological level going back to October 2017. This may be the path of least resistance if the technical signals prevail in the long run.

Gold Daily Chart

gold spot

ChartsCreated in TradingView

FX Trading Resources

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Other Weekly Technical Forecast:

Crude Oil Prices Edge to 5-Month High, Doesn't Feel Like a 'Breakout'

British Pound Forecast –No Brexit Deal- Pound Losses Mount

US Dollar Forecast – USD Starting to Look Exhausted

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.