News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Nasdaq 100 index is aiming to breach a key resistance level at 14,950 for a second time. A successful attempt may open the door to further gains, although the MACD indicator flags signs of weakness. Get your equities forecast from @margaretyjy here: https://t.co/BEYupi32qB https://t.co/PWeXE8tZVY
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/t34kotPE8R
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/lM1OIJdjhr
  • Trading Forex is not a shortcut to instant wealth, excessive leverage can magnify losses, and sentiment is a powerful indicator. Learn about these principles in depth here: https://t.co/lZFM8youtX https://t.co/6qGEVjDlN6
  • Although the medium-term outlook remains negative, Bitcoin could make a bullish move in the coming days if prices manage to hold above key support in the $29,150/28,600 region. Get your #Bitcoin forecast from @DColmanFX here: https://t.co/T7iAD0fbbU https://t.co/xVSG7nKIQG
  • Risk management is one of the most important aspects of successful trading, but is often overlooked. What are some basic principles or risk management? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/IsnpfJhp91 https://t.co/HGWZikGQAa
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/bZEFtp8kFe https://t.co/2cQ0JgAfh7
  • Crude oil prices collapsed on Monday despite an OPEC+ breakthrough, driven by Covid-induced demand woes. Meanwhile, Gold is at odds with a stronger US Dollar and falling Treasury yields. Get your #crudeoil market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/H1vmag8d1k https://t.co/1zuPdKUmyE
  • AUD/USD is likely to face increased volatility over the coming days as it faces a batch of key event risks going into the end of July. Get your Australian Dollar forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/qFpg0DCxxL https://t.co/quQxg4WBy3
  • The US Dollar outlook against ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso remains bullish amid capital outflows risks as Covid cases swell. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/vRUVxvQP8o https://t.co/cUEkW9BfIP
Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Gains on Election, EU-US Tariffs to Derail Markets?

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Gains on Election, EU-US Tariffs to Derail Markets?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

Euro Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • Euro gained as US election weakened US Dollar, stocks rose
  • All eyes on fiscal stimulus outcome and divided government?
  • Will EU impose US tariffs? Focus on ECB’s forum as well
Advertisement

The Euro gained cautiously against its major counterparts this past week on a very close US presidential election race. Most of its strength was against haven-linked currencies like the US Dollar and similarly-behaving Japanese Yen. Where it suffered was against growth-oriented ones like the New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar. The latter two appreciated alongside the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.

Global market sentiment improved as Democratic nominee Joe Biden pulled ahead against incumbent Donald Trump as it became slowly more certain who could take charge of the White House. On Friday, Mr Biden overtook Trump in key swing states Georgia and Pennsylvania. Though unconfirmed, this would set him on course to take the presidency. However, market mood tapered as Trump filed lawsuits on election results.

Still, it seems that the country is heading for a divided government. Due to a runoff in Georgia, the composition of the Senate likely won’t be known until at least early January. That could mean smaller-than-expected fiscal aid. Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell, referencing October’s rosy jobs report, said that the data ought to affect the size of any additional stimulus package. This could come back to haunt financial markets.

The Euro may remain sensitive to market sentiment in today’s low-rate environment, especially with the European Central Bank having recently hinted at more easing and keeping lending rates near zero. With central bankers generally having little room to reduce interest rates, particularly in developed countries, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD will likely remain glued to where global stock markets go – see chart.

Data next week like German ZEW sentiment and third-quarter Eurozone GDP may do little to drive near-term ECB policy expectations. What will be more interesting to watch is how the European Union approaches the November 10th target date for imposing WTO-approved $4 billion retaliatory tariffs against the US over local aid to Boeing Co. This is part of a 16-year old dispute which Trump has threatened to strike back if imposed.

If the EU imposes tariffs, that may dent sentiment, sinking EUR/USD, EUR/JPY as EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD rise. But, with Joe Biden on course to take the White House, shifting the nation’s foreign policy approach, the road ahead seems a bit muddy for now. ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and BoE’s Andrew Bailey may underscore the need for lose policy at the former’s forum, improving sentiment.

Euro Versus US Dollar and S&P 500

Euro Forecast: EUR/USD Gains on Election, EU-US Tariffs to Derail Markets?

Chart Created in TradingView

*Majors-Based Euro Index Averages EUR Against: USD, JPY, GBP and AUD

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES