News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Emotions are often a key driving force behind #FOMO. If left unchecked, they can lead traders to neglect trading plans and exceed comfortable levels of risk. Read on and get your emotions in check here:
  • Technical indicators are chart analysis tools that can help traders better understand and act on price movement. Learn more about the importance of technical analysis here:
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:
  • #Gold prices declined following bearish technical cues, but a key zone of support was reinforced over the past 48 hours. #XAUUSD volatility risk is elevated ahead of the #USElection -
  • What is the US Dollar outlook based on retail positioning ahead of the November 3rd presidential election? EUR/USD may fall as AUD/USD rises. Which way could USD/CAD capitulate? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • US #COVID19 cases hit a record for a second consecutive day -BBG
  • The Indian Rupee may weaken following a breakout higher in USD/INR. Despite rising global stock market volatility, the Nifty 50 has been holding its ground. Could it capitulate lower? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar gained, pushing USD/SGD to break higher. However, USD/IDR may be looking at losses ahead. USD/MYR struggled to breach the March trendline. USD/PHP could rise.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The #DowJones and #SP500 have as of today averaged: -2.16% & 1.43% 3-months and 1-year before #Election2020 respectively What could this mean for the incumbent president/Trump next week? 👇
Euro Due for More Chop as Inflation Data Point Higher; Draghi on Thursday

Euro Due for More Chop as Inflation Data Point Higher; Draghi on Thursday

2017-01-29 23:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Euro Due for More Chop as Inflation Data Point Higher; Draghi on Thursday

Fundamental Forecast for EUR/USD: Neutral

- EUR/USD grind continues, seemingly at the whims of erratic news flow out of Washington D.C.

- Incoming inflation data for Euro-Zone coincides with inflation expectations pushing to highest expectations since December 2015.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar and see what live coverage for key event risk impacting FX markets is scheduled for the coming days on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See the DailyFX Q1’17 and 2017 Trade of the Year Forecasts

Despite important data due out over the coming week, there’s not much reason to think that the Euro, broadly speaking, will be able to find much direction. Much like last week, when the Euro’s performance was largely dictated by movements in other currencies – the rally in the British Pound, the ongoing erosion of the US Dollar – the supersaturated calendar over the coming days means the Euro’s own incoming data may take a back seat.

For the Euro, if there are going to be significant drivers that are domestic-born, look no further than incoming inflation data. German data due out on Monday is expected to show that inflation in January 2017 rose to its highest pace in four years. Similarly, Euro-Zone CPI estimates due out Tuesday are forecast to show the fastest rise in prices since July 2013. The other big release on Tuesday, the Euro-Zone Q4’16 GDP report, is expected to show modest growth at +1.7% annualized, nothing to get excited over.

These upcoming inflation figures from Germany and the broader Euro-Zone carry the most weight among upcoming data releases, particularly in the context in which they are occurring: amid rising inflation expectations broadly. The 5-year, 5-year inflation swap forwards, a market measure of inflation expectations, have pushed to their highest level since December 2015, closing last week out at 1.798%.

While these developments are promising – rising inflation pressures are exactly what the ECB wants to accomplish with its policies – by no means does this mean that the ECB will back away from its easing measures. While the hawks may be chirping for a withdrawal of stimulus in 2017, ECB President Mario Draghi made clear at the January meeting that low rates and extraordinary policy measures would continue beyond the end of 2017.

While there is a FOMC meeting on Wednesday, it won’t have new SEPs – so there may not be much for traders to work with. Instead, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks on Thursday after the wave of data, which should offer market participants an anchor point to look to in order to clarify the ECB’s thinking on the data preceding the speech; to a certain degree, Draghi could nullify any significant price action in the Euro through the week to date when he reaches the podium.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Senior Currency Strategist

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX.

To receive this analyst’s reports, sign up for his distribution list.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.