We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Bank Lending YoY (JUN) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Expected: 7.2% Previous: 4.8% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • The ASX 200 and AUD/JPY are at risk of losses as cases of Covid-19 continue to climb in Victoria, Australia’s second-most populous state. Get your #ASX market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/O0LNvhy4eY https://t.co/D0gLVmr3Oy
  • Will be discussing the outlook for equities such as the #DowJones and covering the growth-linked Australian and Canadian Dollars. Signup below! #AUDUSD $USDCAD https://t.co/3zrxxRtpEf
  • If you missed yesterday's live coverage of the #RBA rate decision where I discussed the outlook for the Australian Dollar, check out the recording below - https://t.co/KyXcN0ExHg
  • #AUDJPY May Extend Losses as Growing #Virus Cases Sour Risk Appetite⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/07/07/AUDJPY-May-Extend-Losses-as-Growing-Virus-Cases-Sour-Risk-Appetite.html
  • Join @ddubrovskyFX 's #webinar at 8:00 PM ET/12:00 AM GMT to find out what information you can gain from knowing what other traders are buying or selling. Register here: https://t.co/Bb3CTCTm44 https://t.co/G4L3ed3Lj4
  • The US Dollar is pressured as rising coronavirus cases fail to dent 2021 GDP bets. Could the Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah, Philippine Peso and Malaysian Ringgit rise? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/u1qhaIGGoC https://t.co/6APl3pMZhF
  • Join @ddubrovskyFX 's #webinar at 7:00 PM ET/11:00 AM GMT to find out what information you can gain from knowing what other traders are buying or selling. Register here: https://t.co/Bb3CTCTm44 https://t.co/NdLv5isHMg
  • A bullish 50-dma/200-dma crossover is about to be formed on the daily copper chart suggesting that further gains are likely in the short- to medium-term.Get your copper market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/arrykVq1nu https://t.co/bjmKvS7V0y
  • Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) boosts intervention to $HKD 10.331 billion to defend $USD currency peg
CAD Bracing for Volatility: BoC Hold, Jobs Report, OPEC Oil Cuts?

CAD Bracing for Volatility: BoC Hold, Jobs Report, OPEC Oil Cuts?

2018-12-01 13:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
Share:
CAD/USD

Canadian Dollar Fundamental Forecast: Neutral

  • Canadian Dollar about two percent weaker against USD since last BoC rate decision
  • December’s rate hold may set the pace for next hike to come, potentially boosting CAD
  • Canadian jobs report may disappoint, draining CAD. Can OPEC reignite crude oil?

Have a question about what’s in store for Canadian Dollar next week? Join a DailyFX Trading Q&A Webinarto ask it live!

The Canadian Dollar continued being pressure against the US Dollar as we headed towards the end of the week. This has generally been the trend since October amidst the backdrop of fading near-term Bank of Canada rate hike expectations and a slump in crude oil prices. The former represents the main appeal of a currency while the latter is a key source of revenue for Canada.

Likely, the main event for the Loonie ahead may be the last BoC rate decision of 2018. This event is arguably one of the key reasons why CAD has been under pressure since the central bank last raised rates in October. About a month ago, the markets were roughly pricing in a 30 percent chance of another hike in December. Those are now at zero, aiding to send USD/CAD about 2% higher since then.

Since markets are forward looking, attention will turn to the BoC’s guidance to gauge when the next hike could be expected. This is because policymakers are looking to raise rates to a neutral level, similar to the Fed. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 66% chance of a rate increase afterwards in January 2019. This is followed by a 32.1% chance of a subsequent one in April. We may get further clarification from a speech by BoC’s Governor Stephen Poloz the following day.

Signs that the central bank may pull the trigger on another hike soon would benefit the Canadian Dollar, but gains against the US Dollar could be difficult. Arguably, the Fed is more hawkish than its Canadian counterpart. But, this could leave the Australian and New Zealand Dollars considerably more vulnerable to a hawkish BoC. Their respective central banks may not even raise rates once in 2019.

After the BoC and a speech from its Governor, the Canadian Dollar awaits November’s local jobs report. Canadian economic news flow has generally been tending to underperform against economists’ expectations. Given a data dependent central bank, an unexpected negative surprise in the employment report risks sending CAD lower. As such, do also keep a close eye on the accompanying hourly wage numbers.

Finally, the 175th OPEC meeting is on the table. Speculation has been building of potential supply cuts on the horizon amidst the plunge in crude oil. But, this could be made difficult to achieve if Russia, a major non-OPEC producer, is not on the same page. With that in mind, the Canadian Dollar fundamental outlook will have to be neutral.

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

Other Weekly Fundamental Forecast:

Japanese Yen Forecast – USD/JPY Rate Vulnerable to Less-Hawkish Fed Testimony

Australian Dollar Forecast – Australian Dollar Looks To Trump, Xi In Argentina, RBA Policy Meet

Oil Forecast – Crude Books Worst Month in 10yrs, Outlook Turns Dour Pre-OPEC, G20

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.