News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Short-term uncertainties to keep the pressure on equity markets. Get your weekly equities forecast from @JMcQueenFX here:
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here:
  • - Unreal atmosphere - Shame about the result, but no complaints - Usyk masterclass - Heavyweight division blown wide open
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
USD/JPY Rate Vulnerable to Less-Hawkish Fed Testimony

USD/JPY Rate Vulnerable to Less-Hawkish Fed Testimony

David Song, Strategist

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral

Japanese Yen Talking Points

USD/JPY marks another failed attempt to test the 2018-high (114.55)as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tames speculation for an extended hiking-cycle,and the dollar-yen exchange rate may continue to consolidate ahead of the next interest rate decision on December 19 as it preserves the range for November.

The reaction to Chairman Powell undermines the recent resilience in USD/JPY and leaves the greenback vulnerable to near-term headwinds as the central bank head is scheduled to testify in front of the Joint Economic Committee of Congress next week.

Chairman Powell may strike a similar tone before U.S. lawmakers as ‘the economic effects of our gradual rate increases are uncertain,’ and another batch of less-hawkish remarks may sap the appeal of the U.S. dollar as there appears to be limited views on implementing above-neutral interest rates. In turn, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) may do little to influence the near-term outlook for USD/JPY even though the updates are anticipated to show the economy adding another 200K jobs in November, and the FOMC could be nearing the end of the hiking-cycle as interest rates ‘remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy.’

USD/JPY Rate Vulnerable to Less-Hawkish Fed Testimony

Keep in mind, the FOMC Minutes suggests the central bank will deliver another rate-hike at its last meeting for 2018 as ‘almost all participants expressed the view that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted fairly soon,’ and Fed officials may stay on track to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2019 as the shift in U.S. trade policy raises the outlook for inflation.

Chairman Powell & Co. may continue to project a neutral fed funds rate of 2.75% to 3.00% as ‘contacts in many Districts indicated that input costs had risen and that increased tariffs were raising costs,’ and expectations for higher U.S. interest rates instills a long-term bullish outlook for USD/JPY especially as the Bank of Japan (BoC) appears to be on course to carry the Quantitative/Qualitative Easing (QQE) Program with Yield-Curve Control into the year ahead.

Until then, USD/JPY stands at risk of facing range-bound conditions as the exchange rate flops ahead of the 2018-high (114.55), with recent price action raising the risk for a larger pullback as it snaps the string of higher highs & lows from the previous week. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups!

USD/JPY Daily Chart

USD/JPY Rate Vulnerable to Less-Hawkish Fed Testimony

The advance from the November-low (112.30) may continue to unravel as USD/JPY preserves the monthly range, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator remains stuck in a near-term holding pattern.

In turn, the 113.80 (23.6% expansion) to 114.30 (23.6% retracement) region may keep USD/JPY capped, with the Fibonacci overlap around 112.40 (61.8% retracement) to 113.00 (38.2% expansion) on the radar as it largely lines up with the November-low (112.30). However, a break below the stated region opens up the next downside area of interest around 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.80 (23.6% expansion), which lines up with the October-low (111.38).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q4 Forecast for Japanese Yen

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.