We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Euro’s struggle to move higher against a range of currencies continues and without further support this is likely to continue into the year-end. Get your $EURUSD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/myZ7R0eGUb https://t.co/12WJd53Cx4
  • The #Dow Jones moved confidently higher last week as it added onto recent gains. Now, #stocks will aim to continue their rally while enjoying support from prior all-time highs. Get your technical analysis on #equities from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Qb89HIWxBY https://t.co/HMguTvD157
  • How can you trade #forex after a major release? Find out: https://t.co/sdxcXb8q60 #tradingstyle https://t.co/LNcbvVhIc2
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX #podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/mk1w1DM2Rh https://t.co/m763epaH2C
  • Crude #oil prices, $NOK and $SEK may rise if Donald Trump’s speech on trade war developments amplifies market buoyancy against the backdrop of critical US CPI and retails sales data. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/5rdK7xsQNq https://t.co/YnlQjKNZdS
  • RT @next_china: U.S., China chief trade negotiators spoke by phone on Saturday, Xinhua reports https://t.co/dMQtd0g4jY
  • The $AUDUSD and $EURUSD downtrend may prolong as traders counterintuitively buy into their descent. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD uptrend may accelerate on rising net-short bets. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/dlzJ31kf3f https://t.co/xp8P9MmCgb
  • As we head into next week, Cable is continuing to digest the massive leg higher last month, which at some point soon could mean another surge. Get your $GBPUSD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/LJ42YhDe3X https://t.co/5hGwhGBpLB
  • Asia’s vast and growing importance to the world economy is not yet matched by the presence of a currency trading center to rival the established order. Get your update on market drivers in Asia from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/E2hqoRdO7q https://t.co/urMnUCq4fn
  • RT @markets: White-hot pot stocks have flamed out in spectacular fashion https://t.co/3GsVsRyZaZ
US Dollar Falls After 'Really Significant' Remark: USD to Support

US Dollar Falls After 'Really Significant' Remark: USD to Support

2019-10-31 12:34:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
Share:

US Dollar Talking Points:

For most of yesterday’s FOMC rate decision and press conference, the US Dollar held support and showed some element of strength, even as the Fed cut rates for the third time in as many meetings, almost completely taking-out last year’s hikes. But, there was a catch point, and it appeared to show right around the time FOMC Chair Jerome Powell said that the bank would need to see a ‘really significant’ rise in inflation before hiking rates. This turned the US Dollar lower from a key zone of resistance, the same that was looked in these articles of recent, and sellers have continued to push ever since.

So, at this point, it would appear that Chair Powell has threaded the needle for this particular scenario: He didn’t pledge or commit to additional cuts but on the same token he removed a bit of the fear that remained after posing prior rate cuts as ‘mid cycle adjustments’ or ‘insurance rate cuts,’ each of which kept the door open to near-term hikes should the data indicate stronger inflation. But with yesterday’s comment, this is no longer as large of a concern and the Greenback has continued tracking-lower through Asian and European sessions.

The focus now moves on to data with this morning’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge of PCE to go along with tomorrow’s release of Non-Farm Payrolls data for the month of October.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart

us dollar usd four hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

Taking a step back on the US Dollar and additional weakness can be an attractive theme to work with. This was looked at in the Q4 Technical Forecast for the US Dollar, focusing-in on a rising wedge formation that will often be approached for bearish reversals. With the first month of Q4 now almost in the books, that’s been the backdrop for the USD so far as a series of negative data points have brought sellers into the mix since the October open.

Download the Q4 Forecast for the US Dollar

US Dollar Daily Price Chart

us dollar usd daily price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; US Dollar on Tradingview

Gold Prices Push-Higher to go with US Dollar Weakness

With USD-weakness coming into play one of the natural directions is to look for strength in Gold prices. At this stage, the advance in Gold has been relatively muted as price action has yet to test the October highs. This can be a precarious spot to investigate topside exposure in Gold as price action is lurking below resistance. This can, however, keep the door open for support inflections off of the 1475-1480 zone that’s been in-play over the past few weeks or, alternatively, topside breakouts above the October high showing around 1520.

Gold Eight-Hour Price Chart

gold eight hour price chart

Chart prepared by James Stanley; Gold on Tradingview

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.