Staying Short Euro in a Fast Trending Market
- EURUSD breaches 1.0600 for first time in 12-years.
- EURJPY honing in on lowest levels since August 2013.
- See the March forex seasonality report for trends in the QE-era.
The US Dollar is a raging bull, and the Euro is hitting the skids like no other time seen in the past decade. While retail traders have shown the proclivity to fade moves, let's be clear: at present time, the EUR-spectrum is in a fast trending mindset, and attempting to call bottoms without technical evidence is a sure way to lose capital quickly.
There are two ways to approach the Euro right now: wait for a minor degree of mean reversion, and be willing to cut losses quickly if the rebound gathers pace (using the daily 3- or 5-EMA may be useful in this regard); or avoid the EUR-crosses entirely. Blindly shorting the market - chasing - is always an ill-advised move, irrespective of whatever fundamental forces may seem dominant at the time (the ECB's QE program, expectations ahead of the March 18 FOMC meeting).
Even as EURUSD has plummeted to its lowest levels in nearly 12-years, there may be an opportunity to look for a short-term low in other EUR-crosses that could present a tradeable bounce to short thereafter. In EURJPY, price is quickly closing in on ¥127.95, the July and August 2013 support region. In EURGBP, the April 2006 high near £0.7015 is coming into focus. In either case, it's still far too early to attempt and call the low in the EUR-crosses.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist
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