News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/p7l6voNLTR
  • #DJIA futures eyeing a retest of the February record-high (29595.3) after breaking above Falling Wedge resistance A daily close above the January low (28130.2) could signal the resumption of the primary uptrend extending from the March doldrums $DJI #DowJones #WallStreet https://t.co/DKmECFfpGK https://t.co/IBuArQrIJQ
  • @DailyFXTeam Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.32%) S&P 500 (+0.35%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.37%) [delayed] -BBG
  • #Market Snapshot $AUDUSD and $EURUSD drifting from session-highs as the haven-associated $JPY attempts to claw back lost ground. #SP500 futures, #Gold and #crudeoil all moving higher while the #ASX200 struggles to penetrate key resistance at 6,000 https://t.co/07OdgCzeZD
  • Join @DanielGMoss's #Webinar at 10:00 PM ET/2:00 AM GMT for his weekly coverage of trading prep for $AUDUSD in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/wi1qabrtHJ https://t.co/yUfAnqiYEs
  • Dow Jones climbed a second day on fiscal stimulus hopes. All 9 Dow sectors were up. Traders face a quiet calendar day, with the 1st presidential debate closely eyed. The live TV debate will be on air from 9:00 to 10:30am Singapore time on Wednesday. https://t.co/vyVHRqDCMo
  • According to John Hopkins University, Coronavirus deaths globally have surpassed 1 million people
  • What is the outlook for financial markets ahead of the first presidential debate and how are Democratic nominee Joe Biden and President Donald Trump doing in the polls? Find out from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/QQwAZTxZFg https://t.co/7meK4cF0U9
  • ❗Heads up for #Rupee $USDINR traders! The #RBI monetary policy announcement originally set for October 1 is going to be rescheduled at a later date, tbd, Will update once time is known - https://t.co/qVnd9BAnSl
  • European negotiators have indicated for the first time that they are prepared to start writing a joint legal text of a trade agreement with the UK, before fresh talks begin today, according to The Times $GBP
Too Early to Call a Bottom in EUR-crosses Despite CPI Data

Too Early to Call a Bottom in EUR-crosses Despite CPI Data

2015-03-02 11:32:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Talking Points:

- EURUSD trades back above 1.1200 after Feb EZ CPI beats.

- Technical structures of EURGBP, EURJPY remain bearish.

- See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for Monday, March 2, 2015.

Better than expected headline inflation data from the Euro-Zone in February comes as a welcomed development for the economically-beleaguered region, although it does not come as a complete surprise. After all, CPI readings from Germany at the end of last week beat expectations as well, and it was likely that the Euro-Zone's largest economy saw its own improvement spill over to the broader inflation reading.

In context of recent data, the February CPI report marks yet another report in which the actual data has come in above consensus forecasts. By the end of last week, the Euro-Zone Citi Economic Surprise Index was holding up at +51.0, coming off of its widest differential relative to its US counterpart since July 2011 (CESIEUR-USD ended the week at +97.7) and to its UK counterpart since March 2013 (CESIEUR-GBP ended the week at +41.7).

Evidently, though, recent data out of these developed economies hasn't been directly in line with what these economic momentum indexes are indicating on the surface; UK and US data hasn't been 'terrible,' and Euro-Zone data hasn't been 'great.' Rather, the expectations for the Euro-Zone are so low, and the bar for the UK and the US too high. Forecasters have gotten ahead of themselves.

With a heavy calendar over the next few days - including the ECB's second meeting of the year on Thursday - it would be naive to single out one piece of data (February EZ CPI above expectations) amid a stretch of data 'outperformance' and use it as a basis to declare a bottom in the EUR-complex, especially when the Euro has been unresponsive to the outperformance thus far. The technical developments seen in several EUR-crosses suggest countertrend moves taking place that may offer 'sell the rally' opportunities over the coming days; it's far too early to call a bottom in the EUR-crosses.

See the above video for technical considerations in EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY, and EURCAD.

Read more: Euro’s Hope Lies in ECB’s Economic Projections, Not in Greece

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES